Iran-backed militias that form the self-styled “Axis of Resistance” have recently made bold claims regarding their air defense capabilities.
Hezbollah recently showcased captured Israeli weaponry from past wars in South Lebanon to the press.
Upon pointing at a vintage Soviet-built SA-6 “Gainful” (NATO reporting name for the Soviet 2K12 “Kub”) surface-to-air missile system, a guide appointed by Hezbollah suggested that the militia has, or could soon acquire, the much more modern, strategic S-300 in a remark to Globe and Mail.
“Do you think we don’t have S-300?” he asked rhetorically before adding, in English, “If Iran has S-300, absolutely Hezbollah will take S-300.”
Iran did acquire modern S-300 PMU-2 missiles from Russia in 2016, but there is no indication they transferred any to Hezbollah.
That wasn’t the only questionable procurement claim made by members of the Axis recently.
In June, a senior commander of Iraq’s umbrella Popular Mobilization Forces paramilitary told Middle East Eye the group had acquired new Russian weaponry, including the S-400 missile system. Newer than the S-300, the S-400, debuted in 2007, is one of the most powerful air defense batteries in the Russian military. Iran does not possess any S-400s.
Early in the Ukraine war, an unconfirmed report in the Guardian claimed Iran transferred one of its Bavar-373 air defense systems, Iran’s equivalent of the S-300, to Moscow, along with rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles from its PMF proxies.
Iraq has contemplated buying either S-300 or S-400 missiles in recent years but never ultimately ordered. Its most advanced air defenses are medium-range Russian Pantsir-S1 (which NATO refers to as the SA-22 ‘Greyhound’) acquired in the 2010s. There is no indication that the PMF has access to these systems.
While the PMF may have expected something in return for these transfers, an S-400 would hardly have been a realistic expectation. After all, Turkey paid upward of $2.5 billion for two systems and 120 interceptor missiles. Plus, there is the salient fact that a delivery of such a powerful air defense system to a substate actor in Iraq would be noticed, especially if they attempted to deploy it.
The PMF previously expressed its intention to field air defenses of some kind. A series of shadowy airstrikes believed to have been carried out by Israel targeted PMF bases in Iraq in mid-2019. Shortly after, local Iraqi media published a leaked document purportedly belonging to the PMF outlining the group’s decision to form an “air force.” What progress, if any, they made on that front in the intervening years remains unclear but most likely does not include an S-400 acquisition.
There was much speculation back in 2013 about when Russia would deliver Syria S-300 air defenses Damascus had ordered in 2010, the year before the Syrian Civil War erupted. The long-range system is much more advanced than anything else in Syria’s existing air defense arsenal, which consists mainly of antiquated Soviet-era systems, with some notable exceptions like the Pantsir.
Israel was concerned by the prospect of such a delivery since it had just begun its covert air campaign over the country, dubbed the “war between the wars,” aimed at preventing Iran from transferring advanced missile systems to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. That campaign continues to the present day.
At that time, Russian journalist Igor Korotchenko dismissed the idea Russia could discreetly deliver such a bulky system without American and Israeli intelligence detecting it via satellite.
“You can’t hide S-300s in your pocket. If they had been delivered, western intelligence would have made an announcement,” he told The Guardian at the time.
The same rule likely applies to these bold and unverified Hezbollah and the PMF claims regarding this strategic weaponry.
Incidentally, Syria did eventually receive an S-300 system in 2018. However, the system remained firmly under the control of Russian personnel and was ultimately removed from the country in 2022, underscoring how it was never Syria’s to begin with.
Israeli officials have expressed worries over Hezbollah’s evolving air defenses.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper quoted sources in the Israeli Army Command in June expressing concern over “Hezbollah’s decision to restrict the Israeli Air Force with available Russian air defense systems, SA-8 and SA-22.”
This decision, they said, “is a fundamental change in Hezbollah’s strategic concept, within which attempts are being made to restrict the Israeli Air Force’s freedom to operate during normal hours.”
The SA-8 “Gecko” is the NATO reporting name for the Soviet-built 9K33 Osa short-range system.
Those sources also said that Israel estimated Hezbollah had “doubled the amount of air defense systems in its possession during the last five years and that these defense systems are based mainly on modern Iranian systems.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly in 2015 that Hezbollah had successfully smuggled Pantsir-S1s into Lebanon “to down our planes.”
Iran has also made no secret of its intention to bolster Syria’s air defense.
“It is very likely that we will witness the supply by Iran of radars and defense missiles, such as the Khordad 15 system, to reinforce Syria’s air defenses,” Iranian state television reported in February, referring to another long-range indigenous Iranian system.
Following the devastating earthquake that ravaged northwest Syria in February, Iran took advantage of earthquake relief flights to smuggle military supplies into the country. According to sources cited by Reuters, these supplies included “advanced communications equipment and radar batteries and spare parts required for a planned upgrade of Syria’s Iran-provided air defense system.”
It’s possible, likely even, that Iran is smuggling air defenses to Syria and its proxies piece by piece to be assembled locally. It has used this model for other weaponry, such as long-range armed drones and short-range ballistic missiles, which Hezbollah, the PMF, and the Houthis in Yemen all possess.
Statements by Hezbollah and the PMF are likely exaggerated or even a simple mix-up by those particular individuals who made them. On the other hand, they could be interpreted as a not-so-subtle warning to Israel not to underestimate these group’s capabilities.
Read the full article here