Since the onset of the latest Israel-Hamas war, triggered by the unprecedented October 7 massacre of Israelis by the Gaza Strip-based militants, the United States has redeployed formidable air, land, and naval forces to the Middle East. In addition to two aircraft carrier strike groups and land-based F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets and A-10 attack aircraft, Washington is also deploying advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, and MIM-104 Patriot air defense missile systems. It should place at least one of these systems in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, Erbil.
The U.S. is bolstering its military presence in the region to deter Iran and defend its forces against Iran-backed militia attacks amidst fears of a wider regional war, especially if Tehran’s proxy militias respond to an Israeli ground war in Gaza by attacking American military and civilian targets throughout the Middle East.
Consequently, the U.S. has warned its citizens against traveling to Iraq and ordered the evacuation of all non-emergency staff from its Baghdad embassy and Erbil consulate. Since the Israel-Hamas war began, U.S. bases and troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under fresh rocket and drone attacks.
The U.S. military won’t specify where it is deploying the THAAD and Patriot systems, only confirming they will “be throughout the theater” in the U.S. Central Command’s area of operation, hence the broader Middle East. These cutting-edge systems may be positioned in Israel as another tangible sign of U.S. support and at airbases in the Arab Gulf countries hosting American troops and aircraft.
However, deploying at least one system to Erbil would enhance U.S. force posture in a strategically important region and give a local partner some much-needed reassurance.
The White House believes Iran is “actively facilitating” rocket and drone attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. If Washington decides against deploying air defenses in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran and its proxies could identify it as a weak spot and carry out more strikes there, potentially harming American personnel and local civilians.
The threat isn’t merely hypothetical. Iranian proxies have targeted the Harir Air Base outside of the Kurdish capital twice already this month alone. The attacks did not cause any casualties or serious damage, possibly because they were warning shots intended to demonstrate the ability of these militias to hit the base.
Even though it’s in a relatively rural area, past attacks on Harir have endangered civilians in the base’s vicinity.
The U.S. also has a troop base on the grounds of Erbil International Airport, EIA, which has come under intermittent attacks in recent years. One such attack in February 2021 saw some rockets raining down on a residential area near the airport. That attack killed a non-American civilian contractor on the base and seriously injured an Iraqi civilian on the street, who died of his injuries a week later.
When Iran attacked U.S. troops in Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq’s western Anbar province in January 2020 with ballistic missiles in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad days earlier, there weren’t any air defenses on the base to shield them.
The attack did not kill or severely injure any troops—nevertheless, some sustained traumatic brain injuries. Washington subsequently deployed Patriot batteries at Al-Asad and EIA. However, those Patriots have since been redeployed, undoubtedly due to the limited global supply of these high-end systems.
Redeploying a Patriot alongside a smaller C-RAM (counter rocket, artillery, and mortar) system for intercepting short-range rockets and small drones at EIA (shorter-range air defenses would probably suffice for Harir) could go a long way to deter Iran and secure a crucial foothold for the U.S. military in the region. Iraqi Kurdistan and its bases are vital for supporting the 900-or-so American troops in Syria and operations against Islamic State remnants there – it’s not coincidental some of the helicopters used in the October 2019 operation that assassinated ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria’s Idlib took off from Erbil.
The U.S. should also commit to the complete defense of Erbil and its residents against various aerial threats.
In addition to the February 2021 strike, another ballistic missile strike 13 months later targeted a residential area in the Kurdish capital. Iran claimed the 12 Fateh-110 ballistic missiles it fired at a villa in March 2022 targeted a secret Israeli base. In reality, Iran struck the home of a local businessman connected with the autonomous region’s energy sector to signal its strong objection to a plan for Iraqi Kurdistan to supply Turkey and Europe with gas. While the attack shook the city and caused minor damage to the nearby headquarters of the Kurdistan 24 satellite television station, it luckily did not kill anyone.
Iran-backed militias carried out subsequent rocket attacks against energy facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan in tandem with legal efforts spearheaded by its powerful political proxies in Baghdad to undermine the autonomous region’s oil and gas sector.
That may not be the case in future attacks. Subsequently, the U.S. should signal that a Patriot deployment aims to provide a broad defense to Erbil city and its civilian population against missiles rather than mere point defense for the American personnel at EIA. American and Kurdish officials should also reemphasize the defensive nature of the deployment, which Tehran will undoubtedly reject, as well as Iraqi Kurdistan’s official neutrality in the current crisis.
On the political front, a deployment would come at a perfect time to reassure the Iraqi Kurds of their partnership with the United States, which has been increasingly in doubt. Less than a week before Hamas launched its fateful attack on Israel, a Wall Street Journal editorial warned that President Biden “has signaled a willingness to distance himself from a trusted and beleaguered ally—to Iran’s advantage.”
Furthermore, Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani sent a letter to Biden in September. In it, the Kurdish premier warned his region is at “another critical juncture” with Iraq’s post-2003 federal system possibly facing collapse amidst a concerted Iran-backed effort to undermine and ultimately dismantle the Kurdistan region’s hard-won autonomy by exerting immense political, economic, and even military pressure against it.
A lone Patriot and accompanying C-RAM could go a long way in reassuring a longtime ally, which consistently seeks de-escalation and stability in an infamously volatile part of the world, that America isn’t about to abandon its friends in the region.
Read the full article here