Swifties continue to help prop up the 2023 box office, as Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour tops $230 million, taking the #2 spot at the weekend box office with $13.6 million. And the worldwide popularity of the music artist could provide a big benefit for The Marvels next weekend.
Off just $2 million from last weekend — a spectacular 88% hold — Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is on track for $250 million worldwide by the end of its historic run. No doubt the arrival of The Marvels will draw away some of the primary audience demographics for The Eras Tour, but on the other hand theaters featuring both films might benefit from Swifties deciding to make it a “double feature” night by seeing both films together, while walking out of The Marvels might have viewers flying high enough to choose a “double feature” approach by dropping in on The Eras Tour afterward.
With The Marvels tracking to a $130-150 million worldwide opening according to recent data, any boost from Taylor Swift’s film and fans would be a welcome turn of events. Indeed, I’m surprised Marvel didn’t attempt to make a deal with Swift to help promote The Marvels by attending the premiere in LA and endorsing it, while getting theaters to promote “double feature” screenings of the films together as “Taylor Swift: The Marvels Tour” or some such marketing.
Swift is savvy and could get a lucrative deal for some opening weekend dollars, support for her own film in Marvel’s marketing for The Marvels, and maybe a promise to get her into the MCU in a prominent role. Dazzler is the common favorite answer, but I’d argue she’s a strong contender for Supergirl, Wonder Woman, Sue Storm/Invisible Woman, Emma Frost, Magik, and any number of others as well.
But even without overt promotional tie-ins and endorsements, fans on both sides of this equation might be inclined to feed one another’s energy at the box office this weekend, showing up in groups and wearing their respective merchandise, with plenty of overlap between the two groups and likely at least a decent number who’ve already seen both films or plan to.
So there might be some instant synergy built into this equation that standard tracking doesn’t tell us about, although obviously this is speculation on my part and would also probably include lost audience to both films due to the competition, so the question would be which film benefits more from either and both influences.
That said, I feel the early positive reactions to The Marvels coupled with its fast pacing and under-two-hours runtime will create a unique environment at the box office this weekend. The top two films could be — or are likely to be — women-driven releases accounting for the overwhelming majority of people at the box office this weekend. I say that because I feel pretty confident Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour will wind up in second place again this weekend due to overall stronger holds than the rest of the competition.
So with Taylor Swift the leading contender to take the silver medal this weekend, and what that means for a box office that could be dominated by women-led audiences overall (when the total percentage of women is tallied up, particularly for the top five), I feel there’s some reason to feel hopeful that the weekend turns out better at the box office than early reports suggest. If they haven’t already, both camps — Swift and Marvel — should be looking at how promoting one another’s films would probably be helpful to boost both’s chances, even without any official coordination.
Longterm, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour could potentially add to its $250 million final tally (where I believe it will finish its run), if Swift makes another deal to return her film to theaters around Christmas if the rest of the competition is stumbling or underperforming (as I think at least one or two will, unfortunately from a box office standpoint). If that window of opportunity opens, then Swift could wind up seeing a final 2023 box office cume in the neighborhood of $300 million for The Eras Tour.
But even without such a rerelease, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is already an incredible success and has established the groundwork for an entirely new approach to concert films and distribution. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé will seek to replicate the success, or some degree of it depending on the details of release, when it hits theaters December 1st. The timing and epic scope of the film could help ensure Renaissance is another blockbuster concert film, proving the genre has definitely taken a major turn in prominence and potential in the theatrical marketplace.
This could, should, and hopefully will spawn a whole new interest and approach to concert moviemaking, including more immersive experiences, exclusive experiences, live experiences, and approaches expanding the creation and use of spaces such as The Sphere in Las Vegas.
It would be wonderful to see this sort of emergence of concerts and musical experiences as a major new part of theatrical, and in turn it would obviously have all sorts of positive influences on the expansion and technical evolution of theaters, projection, seating, sound, and how we directly or indirectly interact with the storytelling.
And on the flip side, it would be amazing to witness the ways music and concerts and interactive live performances evolve and turn into deeper multi-layered storytelling by necessity, a process enhanced by as well as even partially driven by specific changes to filming and distribution and platforms that the films themselves necessitate, and so on.
Whatever the future, this weekend it will be all about The Marvels, and Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour could play either a mild spoiler role or the role of booster. It will be interesting to see which way things turn out, and I’ll be back with updates on how it all plays out. Meanwhile, be sure to check out my article this week about reports of Marvel Studios’ supposedly out of control downturn.
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