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Just hours after Hamas’s devastating dawn assault on southern Israel, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was preparing for action. He established a task force and a working group to co-ordinate with Washington — his government being one of the few with direct lines to the US, Israel, Hamas and the Islamist group’s backer, Iran. Within 48 hours, Sheikh Mohammed, who is also foreign minister, had spoken to Mossad chief David Barnea, US secretary of state Antony Blinken, his Iranian counterpart, and Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
The initial intention was to take the temperature of an erupting crisis. Israel, enraged and traumatised after the deadliest attack on its soil since the state’s founding in 1948, was in no mood for negotiations. Instead, it demanded that Hamas released the hostages its militants seized during its brutal October 7 raid, says an official briefed on the talks.
When Sheikh Mohammed spoke to Hamas’s political leaders — in exile in Doha and distanced from the group’s military wing in Gaza — they insisted that the militants did not mean to capture so many hostages, including civilians. “OK, show us by releasing all the civilians now,” replied Qatari officials. “It’s more complicated,” was the response.
It has been complicated for Sheikh Mohammed ever since. Working closely with Barnea and CIA chief Bill Burns, the quietly spoken 43-year-old has co-ordinated diplomatic efforts to secure the hostages’ release. On Wednesday, after weeks of tortuous negotiations, Israel and Hamas finally agreed a deal in which the militant group will release 50 women and children from around 240 captives. In return, Israel will pause its offensive on Hamas-controlled Gaza for four days, beginning on Friday, allow more aid and fuel into the besieged strip and free 150 Palestinian women and children from Israeli prisons.
As one of the main interlocutors between Israel and Hamas for a decade, Qatar’s role has been crucial. It previously sent millions of dollars of aid to Gaza each month in co-ordination with Israel and the UN. Just two weeks before Hamas’s attack, Sheikh Mohammed hosted Barnea in Doha to discuss improving economic conditions in Gaza. Qatar — like others — was stunned by the assault.
But Sheikh Mohammed, a low-profile member of the ruling family, is no stranger to crises. The economics graduate was appointed foreign minister in 2016, just 18 months before four Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, severed travel, trade and diplomatic links with his small, import-dependent Gulf state. The quartet appeared to have then US President Donald Trump’s backing, with Qatar accused of supporting Islamist movements and being too cosy with Iran.
As rattled Qataris feared for the fate of their nation, “many doubters” questioned the young diplomat’s ability, says Tarik Yousef, director at the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Unflattering comparisons were made with Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, a flamboyant figure known as HBJ, who served as prime minister and for more than a decade as foreign minister. “As the crisis unfolded, there were calls for the established, larger-than-life figure of HBJ, a sharp contrast to Sheikh Mohammed’s understated style,” Yousef says. “But within months, he began winning admiration from a public that saw steady leadership, minus the flair. And that’s exactly what Qatar needed.”
Sheikh Hamad had overseen Qatar’s transition from desert backwater to vastly wealthy gas powerhouse. But he also drove an assertive foreign policy that raised the hackles of Doha’s neighbours and earned the Gulf state a reputation as a meddling maverick.
He was replaced when Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani ascended the throne in 2013 after his father surprisingly abdicated.
It was the year Sheikh Mohammed entered the foreign ministry as an assistant minister, and his rise through the ranks coincided with Sheikh Tamim’s efforts to recalibrate Qatar’s foreign policy, anchoring it in the partnership with Washington. The state actively projects itself as an “international problem solver”, partly in the belief that carving out a niche as mediator will ensure Doha remains relevant.
Sheikh Mohammed has been central to the shift, combining diplomacy with chairing the Qatar Investment Authority — a $450bn sovereign wealth fund. “He’s the troubleshooter . . . the kind of guy who understands opportunities and risks,” says a western diplomat. “He’s been around long enough to understand the [dangers] of Qatar’s over-reach; mopping up the pieces and suffering the delayed backlash.”
Since the regional embargo was lifted in early 2021, Sheikh Mohammed has defended his nation from criticisms ahead of last year’s football World Cup; acted as interlocutor between the Taliban and the west after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan; helped facilitate a prisoner exchange between the US and Iran; and mediated secret talks between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Washington. Even while the Gaza crisis was raging, he and his team sealed a deal to reunite four Ukrainian children with their families after they were separated during Russia’s invasion.
After Sheikh Mohammed was named prime minister in March, some questioned how much he would be able to focus on his domestic duties, particularly Doha’s economic plans, analysts say. And the next diplomatic challenge is never far away. So far, Qatar has been praised for its brokering role but when the dust finally settles, Doha’s ties to Hamas, including hosting their political office, may become problematic.
“While the role of mediator cements Qatar’s status as a pivotal player, it also draws increasing scrutiny and leaves the nation politically exposed,” Yousef says. “It is a moment of immense consequence — and the risks cannot be understated.”
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