Turkey expects the United States to approve a proposed sale of new F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits in return for Ankara finally green-lighting Sweden’s admission into NATO. However, even if the sale is approved, Turkey may not reverse its recent bid to acquire Eurofighter Typhoon fighters, since it likely views that procurement as necessary to match acquisitions in neighboring countries.
“Positive developments from the United States regarding the F-16 issue and Canada keeping its promises will accelerate our parliament’s positive view on (Swedish membership,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Dec. 19. “All of these are linked.”
Canada had banned the export of drone cameras to Turkey, a move Ankara wants to see reversed in return for its crucial approval for Swedish NATO membership.
Erdogan also commented on the potential Eurofighter procurement.
It was revealed in November that Turkey was in talks with the United Kingdom and Spain over procuring 40 Eurofighters. Any sale will require Germany’s approval, which is not forthcoming. Erdogan was in Germany since the negotiations were revealed but did not raise the issue with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“We have already given our answer clearly. If they give us these planes, they give them. If not, do we lack doors to knock on? No, we have many,” Erdogan told reporters on Nov. 18.
Turkey initially requested to buy 40 Block 70 F-16s and 79 modernization kits in October 2021 for approximately $20 billion. The deal is essential for Turkey’s air force since the backbone of its fighter fleet is F-16s, the third largest fleet of those jets worldwide.
Opening negotiations for an equal number of Eurofighters is a negotiation tactic on Ankara’s part, its way of signaling that it has other potential sources for fighter jets, as Erodgan explicitly stated.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler also commented on the Eurofighter bid in a Dec. 11 interview with local media.
“If we can realize the issues we talked about with our friends, maybe we won’t need it, but we do now,” he said. “The Eurofighter is a very good alternative, and we want to buy it.”
It’s not inconceivable that Ankara will push for a Eurofighter deal even if Washington approves the F-16 sale in the near future.
Turkish officials have already questioned the wisdom of having an all-American fighter fleet. The Eurofighter is a capable aircraft and wouldn’t be a controversial choice for Turkey, unlike the Russian Su-35 Ankara, which Ankara briefly considered before.
Aside from diversifying Turkey’s fighter fleet, which Ankara hopes to upgrade with its indigenous TF Kaan fighter in the 2030s, it could also be interpreted as a response to recent and upcoming acquisitions in neighboring countries.
While tensions between Turkey and Greece have significantly thawed, recent fighter purchases by Athens have raised eyebrows since they could potentially give Greece a technological edge in airpower over its larger neighbor.
Eighty-three F-16s in the Hellenic Air Force, the bulk of the fleet, are undergoing upgrades to the cutting-edge Block 72 standard. Furthermore, Greece has ordered two dozen 4.5-generation Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France and could acquire 20-40 fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth jets from the United States by the first half of the 2030s.
Acquiring new Block 70 F-16s and upgrading 79 of its existing fleet to that standard would be Turkey’s response to the Greek upgrade, while acquiring 40 Eurofighters would match Greece’s Rafale acquisition. Ankara would then have to count on putting the TF Kaan into service by the time Athens begins receiving F-35s.
Defense Minister Guler has reportedly stated the Turkish Eurofighter bid is a response to the Greek Rafale acquisition.
In comments enthusiastically quoted in Greek media, Guler said Greek Rafales have given Athens “air superiority in the airspace of the Aegean.”
“Thus, it is considered that Turkey, to respond to the Greek Rafale, is making this move and is attempting to buy the European Eurofighters,” he said.
Turkey could also want the Eurofighter to match other fighter acquisitions in the Middle East.
For example, Iraq is reportedly negotiating to buy 14 Rafales, which, while modest, could become the most potent fighter interceptors Baghdad has acquired for decades, especially if they are equipped with beyond-visual-range Meteor air-to-air missiles. As previously noted here, in Turkey’s modern history, two of the three fighters it lost to enemy fire were by French-built aircraft, an Iraqi Mirage F1 in 1983 and a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996.
And, of course, Ankara undoubtedly noticed Iran is expecting delivery of at least two dozen Su-35s soon, the most substantive fighter acquisition Tehran has made since the early 1990s.
Whatever the case ultimately proves, there are already indications that Ankara’s interest in the Eurofighter isn’t just a demonstration to Washington that it has alternatives to American combat aircraft.
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