Volaris Stock Surges: What Is Next? (NYSE:VLRS)

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In October 2023, I analyzed Volaris (NYSE:VLRS). The review of the rating for Volaris stock and its price target was sparked by the anticipated capacity reductions driven by the geared turbofan issues that P&W, part of RTX (RTX

1Q’24

1Q’23 (1)

1Q’24 Guidance

ASM growth (YoY)

-16% to -18%

+17.7%

TRASM

$8.5 to $8.7 cents

$7.71 cents

CASM ex fuel

$5.5 to $5.7 cents

$4.65 cents

EBITDAR margin

25% to 27%

16.8%

Average USD/MXN rate

Ps. $17.00 to $17.20

Ps. 18.70

Average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price

$2.55 to $2.65

$3.06

2024

2023 (2)

Full Year Guidance

ASM growth (YoY)

-16% to -18%

+10%

EBITDAR margin

31% to 33%

~26%

CAPEX (3)

~$300 million

~$300 million

Average USD/MXN rate

Ps. $17.70 to $17.90

Ps.17.75

Average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price

$2.50 to $2.60

$2.80

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