An attack by at least five Russian golf carts laden with infantry ended in the usual way on or just before Monday, when Ukrainian forces blasted the flimsy all-terrain vehicles, halting the attack and likely inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians.
The disastrous Russian attack on Ukrainian positions around the eastern town of Kupyansk—defended by the Ukrainian 4th Tank Brigade, 30th Mechanized Brigade and 100th Territorial Defense Brigade, among others—helps explain why Russian casualties keep getting worse as the wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its 29th month.
Struggling to replace destroyed armored vehicles with fresh armored vehicles—either newly built or pulled out of long-term storage—the Kremlin is equipping more units with civilian-style vehicles, including the Chinese-made Desertcross 1000-3 ATVs as well as Chinese and Belarusian dirt bikes.
Against dug-in Ukrainian troops backed by artillery and drones, troops riding on ATVs and bikes don’t stand a chance. It’s not for no reason that the Russians are losing record numbers of troops. “The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine throughout May and June 2024 increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163, respectively,” the U.K. Defense Ministry reported last week.
In all, the Russians lost “in excess” of 70,000 people between May 1 and June 30, according to the ministry. Ukrainian casualties are evidently much lighter.
Up-armoring the ATVs and bikes with anti-drone cages doesn’t seem to help very much, as the extra armor slows down the already under-powered vehicles, making them more vulnerable to other forms of Ukrainian firepower. The resumption of U.S. aid to Ukraine in April, following a six-month blockade by Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress, has seen billions of dollars worth of artillery shells and anti-tank missiles flow to front-line Ukrainian forces.
Heavy losses belie the modest gains the 450,000-person Russian army in Ukraine has achieved since this spring. Indeed, the losses are partially a function of Russia extending the front line by attacking simultaneously in southern, eastern and—starting in May—northern Ukraine around the city of Kharkiv.
“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front line in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” the U.K. Defense Ministry explained. “Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defense and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to exploit any tactical successes.”
Whether it’s worth it to Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin to trade a thousand troops a day for a few hundred yards of shell-pocked Ukrainian soil is a question only Putin can answer. For now, however, the Russian army shows no sign of giving up.
Weirdly, some Russian troops praise the same civilian-style vehicles that are getting them killed in increasing numbers. “The motorcycle is increasingly becoming part of the list of essential front-line vehicles,” one Russian military blogger claimed.
Sources:
1. Astraia Intel: https://x.com/astraiaintel/status/1812853497726984591
2. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-150724
3. Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=49.731117648114584%2C37.70498685077798&z=12
4. U.K. Ministry of Defense: https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1811678866672353372
5. War Translated: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1812416095694778468
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