Russian forces’ march on Pokrovsk doesn’t just imperil Pokrovsk, its vital supply lines, its Ukrainian garrison and any civilians still lingering in the city. It’s also putting Ukrainian troops south of Pokrovsk in a dangerous bind.
As a strong Russian force with potentially tens of thousands of troops has closed to within six miles of Pokrovsk, it has bypassed a strong Ukrainian force holding the line between the village of Memryk and the Vovcha River, threading north to south three miles east of Memryk.
The result is an exposed salient jutting eastward into the Russian line—a salient that, with a few decisive Russian maneuvers, could turn into a trap for hundreds of Ukrainian troops.
Inside the salient: elements of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade, 68th Jager Brigade, 117th Territorial Defense Brigade and 15th National Guard Brigade. It’s a significant force, but one whose integrity depends on the 25th Airborne Brigade, which defends the village or Ukrainsk on the salient’s northern corner.
If the 25th Airborne Brigade with its German-made Marder fighting vehicles “does not stop the enemy near Ukrainsk, the retreat could result in … encirclement by the enemy,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies warned. Parts of at least four Ukrainian brigades would be surrounded by Russians south of Pokrovsk.
A Ukrainian retreat may already be underway. If so, it’s a sound move on the part of the Ukrainian command. “It would be advisable for them to withdraw from the area before Russian forces cut off their supply and retreat routes,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team explained. The Ukrainians could straighten their lines and dig new fortifications a few miles to the west.
Quitting the salient would cede 30 square miles to the Russians but could preserve entire Ukrainian battalions at a critical moment. The more optimistic Ukrainian assessments of the fighting around Pokrovsk detect a slowdown in the Russian advance—one that could give the Ukrainians time and space to shore up their defenses and logistics and save the city.
A slowdown would make some sense. The Russians have suffered extreme casualties—potentially tens of thousands of soldiers killed, maimed or captured—marching the 20 miles from the ruins of Avdiivka to the outskirts of Pokrovsk. And while the Russian attackers still outnumber the Ukrainian defenders as much as four to one, the Russians’ losses have sapped their momentum.
But Ukrainian positions around Pokrovsk are fragile. The Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv is delicately balancing at least two major operations: the defense of Pokrovsk and also the surprise Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast that kicked off in early August.
There are few troops to spare. So few that losing parts of four brigades inside the salient could prove catastrophic for the Ukrainians. At the same time, a successful evacuation by those nearly-surrounded troops could stiffen a straightened and shortened Ukrainian line.
That’s probably a prerequisite for the most optimistic outcome for the Ukrainians defending Pokrovsk. “In our view, stabilization on this section of the front line is indeed possible by fall,” Conflict Intelligence Team explained. “After the Russian army exhausts its offensive potential, the front line is likely to come to a standstill.”
Sources:
1. Conflict Intelligence Team: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-30-sept-2-2024
2. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-020924
3. Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=48.10987878700947%2C37.38824019894119&z=12
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