As it looks to the future, Turkey hopes it can equip its air force with as many as four different types of 4.5-generation and fifth-generation fighter jets, including, Ankara hopes, its indigenous stealth fighter, the TF Kaan.
In some interesting remarks to lawmakers on November 26, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler stated that the United States may lift its five-year-old F-35 embargo against his country. He dubiously claimed, “When the Americans saw that we could produce the Kaan aircraft, their thoughts changed a little. They state that they can give F-35s.”
Turkey had initially sought at least 100 F-35As for its air force. However, it was banned from buying any of these stealth jets in 2019 after it took delivery of advanced S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia.
In recent months, reports have suggested that Ankara and Washington may be on the cusp of resolving the S-400 issue, with Turkey agreeing to restrictions on these systems to regain access to the F-35 program. Reports over the summer indicated Turkey may agree to a compromise arrangement in which the S-400s would be transferred to the American section of Incirlik airbase, keeping them inside Turkey but under direct U.S. supervision. Washington had previously insisted on the complete removal of the Russian systems from Turkey before it would contemplate delivering any F-35s.
“We insist our production share be given back to us,” Guler said. “We have also stated that we want to buy 40 F-35s.”
The mention of the number 40 was noteworthy. It’s less than half what Turkey initially sought, and twice the amount its neighbor and rival Greece is presently acquiring, or at least an equal number if Athens uses its option to buy a total of 40.
It’s unsurprising that Ankara has reduced the number of F-35s it’s buying since it has also ordered 40 F-16 Block 70 fighters. Turkey originally ordered the jets along with 79 modernization kits for its existing F-16 fleet, the only fourth-generation fighter jet presently in Turkey’s air force and the third largest F-16 fleet worldwide. The overall deal was valued at $23 billion.
In the same November 26 hearing, Guler confirmed Turkey scaled down the deal to reduce cost, dropping its request for the kits and bringing the price down to an estimated $7 billion. Turkey has already initiated an indigenous upgrade program for its F-16s called Ozgur, which includes upgrading its oldest Block 30 jets with modern active electronically scanned array radars.
Guler indirectly referenced this program when he said, “Our Turkish Aerospace Industries facilities are capable of carrying out this modernization on their own, so we deferred to them.”
Scaling down these original F-35 and F-16 deals also makes sense, considering Turkey also wants 40 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters to match neighboring Greece’s acquisition of French Dassault Rafale jets in recent years.
The Eurofighter is built by a consortium of Britain, Germany, Italy, and Spain, with any member capable of blocking a sale initiated by another. In this case, Germany has long had reservations about authorizing a British sale of these aircraft to Ankara.
Reuters reported in November that Germany “mandated its sales authority” to work on the potential sale, although this doesn’t mean Berlin has formally approved.
Guler’s comments indicate that the Turkish Air Force is at a crossroads. While now developing its indigenous fighter, Turkey has long relied on America for the supply of fighter aircraft. It’s keeping its older F-4 Phantom IIs flying until at least 2030, a decade longer than planned. Its order of newer F-16s indicates it wants to keep flying the venerable Viper for the foreseeable future, or at least the more modern variants.
Buying F-35s in addition to the TF Kaan it is developing may indicate that Ankara recognizes its indigenous fighter, or at least its initial version, may not be a full-fledged fifth-generation fighter.
Turkey plans to power its first Kaans with American General Electric F110 engines, used by the F-16 and other fourth-generation jets, until it can replace them with a domestically-built engine. Without a fifth-generation engine, the TF Kaan may be considered more of a 4.5-generation fighter, or informally a “4.75-generation” fighter not wholly unlike South Korea’s upcoming KF-21 Boramae.
These planned acquisitions show that Turkey is more eager than ever to diversify its air force, buying some of the best Western-made 4.5 and fifth-generation fighters available off the shelf while simultaneously pushing ahead with its indigenous fighter project. Doing so will hedge its air force against future uncertainties and avoid putting all its eggs in one basket by relying entirely on the United States for its fighter aircraft.
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