Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons during the civil war in his country that began in 2011. Today, as Islamist opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have overrun much of the country and are fast approaching the capital, some fear he may do so again out of sheer desperation.
“I am gravely concerned about the lives of every Syrian because of the real threat of chemical attacks,” said Raed Al-Saleh, director of the Syrian civil defense White Helmets organization.
The US deputy ambassador to the UN warned Syria’s chemical program is “not a relic of the past,” adding that, “It is in situations like the one we face today, when the Assad regime feels most at risk … that the regime previously unleashed chemical weapons on its own people.”
France’s representative to the UN Security Council also called on Assad’s regime to refrain from using these weapons.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes that Assad’s record of using chemicals means “nothing can ruled out.”
“In conditions where there is a sense, as there is now, of existential danger, all bets are off: whether it comes from Assad’s inner circle, or a military official acting alone as the command structure breaks down,” Orton told me.
“One can imagine someone trying something desperate.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the practicality of using chemicals like sarin in conditions of “fast-moving, fluid frontlines” means it’s less likely this will be Assad’s response.
“It should also be said that if the present pace of implosion continues, the regime will be undone before orders could be given to deploy chemical weapons,” Orton said.
During his first administration, President Donald Trump bombed Syria twice—on April 7, 2017, and April 14, 2018—in retaliation for chemical attacks.
“As Trump is almost solely concerned with his personal appearance and prestige, it seems likely chemical weapons use in Syria on his watch would bring a military response,” Orton said.
Aron Lund, a Syria expert and fellow with Century International, noted that credible reports of renewed chemical weapons usage could potentially spark an international crisis.
“It’s all the more worrying given the tense US-Russia relations at the moment,” Lund told me.
“Then there’s the foggy political situation in the United States. We’re just weeks away from Biden handing the White House over to Trump, whose Syria policy remains a mystery to everyone, most probably including himself,” Lund said.
“If you were to get a 2013-type chemical weapons crisis at a moment like that, who knows how it would play out.”
Assad’s August 21, 2013, sarin nerve gas attack killed an estimated 1,400 people in the suburbs of the capital Damascus. It was the single most severe chemical attack in the entire war.
While then-President Barack Obama had previously declared usage of chemicals would violate his declared “red line,” he ultimately decided against striking Syria in favor of a UNSC resolution compelling Assad to surrender his declared stockpile. Most of Syria’s chemicals were subsequently shipped out of the country over the following year by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and destroyed.
While that 2013 deal received substantial criticism, Lund noted it still successfully led to the dismantlement of Syria’s main production infrastructure, including 20 secret facilities and the removal of 1,300 tons of chemicals.
“In doing so, it basically ended the chemical weapons program as a strategic threat to neighboring countries and intervening powers,” Lund said. “That’s one reason, among others, for why Syria then saw so much international involvement – the regime’s main strategic deterrent was gone.”
Consequently, despite its many shortcomings, Lund believes it’s fair to describe that deal as a “counter-proliferation win,” albeit a “messy, imperfect” one.
Most attacks since 2013 involved helicopter-dropped chlorine bombs. OPCW inspectors have found renewed uses of sarin, and Syrian authorities have obstructed them from inspecting the remnants of the program, suggesting they might still have something to hide.
“There’s every reason to believe Assad’s forces still has some limited capability to launch chemical attacks, including with chlorine but also – at least to a limited degree – with nerve agents,” Lund said.
UN and OPCW investigations have found the Assad regime has invariably been the perpetrator of chemical attacks with chlorine and sarin gas. While some Syrian opposition groups could produce primitive chlorine bombs of their own, they are not likely capable of manufacturing deadlier nerve agents like sarin.
“Using nerve gas is an entirely different league of complications, however, and I’ve never seen any credible evidence that any rebel group ever had that capability,” Lund said.
“That seems entirely to be an Assad thing.”
With Assad now losing ground fast, it’s unclear if remnants of his stockpile could fall into the hands of HTS or others. Israel is reportedly worried that some of the regime’s chemicals could come into the possession of such groups. Israeli television reported on Friday that the military recently attacked a chemical cache in Syria, but that remains unconfirmed.
“The Israelis have to prepare for all contingencies, the insurgency has already captured Al-Safira, home to one of the regime’s crucial chemical weapons facilities,” Orton said. “So, Jerusalem’s concerns that HTS will take possession of some of Assad’s chemical weapons and missiles are reasonable.”
On the other hand, Lund believes that if HTS or others capture any chemicals, it’s unclear if they would know what to do with them since they are primarily designed for delivery by aircraft. Furthermore, these groups may not even want to use them.
“They’d probably be much better off handing them over to Turkey or the OPCW to show that they’re responsible actors,” Lund said. “It could earn them some much-needed good publicity.”
“I don’t think they want or need the international pressure that would follow if they were to grab these very nasty weapons for their own use,” he added.
Several well-known Syrian defense-industrial and research facilities are situated in the Al-Safira area south of Aleppo.
“I believe Al-Safira has primarily been linked to rocket and missile production and research, but there is also some information out there about ties to the chemical weapons program,” Lund said. “That’s in the pre-2013 period, to be clear.”
“Then you have a bunch of suspicious underground facilities in the mountains west of Hama and Homs, but the rebels do not control these places—at least not yet.”
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