Russian marines and paratroopers are rolling their precious armored vehicles at Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast in western Russia—and running headlong into the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.
The result, so far, is a growing pile of smoldering wreckage. “Russians desperately trying to liberate Kursk Oblast and suffering huge losses,” according to Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian marine corps drone operator whose team has been defending the same sector as the 47th Mechanized Brigade.
Incredibly, that doesn’t mean Russia is losing its wider war on Ukraine as the conflict grinds into its fourth year. Ukraine may not be sending as many hard-to-replace vehicles on nearly suicidal missions, but it’s still got profound problems of its own along the 800-mile front line.
A three-day assault starting on Jan. 18, led by the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 234th Air Assault Regiment left behind 14 wrecked BMP and BMD fighting vehicles and three T-80 tanks. A separate assault on or just before Tuesday involving at least four tanks and fighting vehicles—and a pickup truck—ended in the destruction of most or all of the vehicles.
A fast-moving Ukrainian force invaded Kursk in August, capturing what is now a 250-square-mile salient around the town of Sudzha. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin initially gave his forces, and their North Korean reinforcements, until February to eject the Ukrainians. But despite holding a 60,000-to-20,000 manpower advantage over the Ukrainians in Kursk, the Russians and North Koreans have made only marginal gains around the salient.
The growing heap of charred wreckage accumulating around Nikolskii, one of the villages the 47th Mechanized Brigade garrisons on the western edge of the salient, speaks to the Russians’ failure.
The fighting on Tuesday was typical. A Russian assault group riding in up-armored fighting vehicles and tanks—and that one pickup—rolled toward Ukrainian positions in broad daylight along the same roads they’ve always traveled in their botched attempts to roll up the Kursk salient.
Surveillance drones spotted the assault group. Explosive first-person-view drones got some of the Russian vehicles. The 47th Mechanized Brigade’s M-2s hit others with their fast-firing 25-millimeter autocannons. Bomb-dropping drones swooped in to clean up the stragglers. In the process, they bombed the pickup.
“Aren’t they sick and tired?” Kriegsforscher asked. “I really do not understand the point of attacking at the [same] place where they attack for the third month.” At the same time, the drone operator conceded that the Russians have made some gains—however slight—on the edges of the salient. “They continue fighting and advancing.”
But Russian and North Korean losses are unsustainable by any reasonable measure. Ukrainian officials claimed 30,000 Russians have been killed and wounded in Kursk. As many as 4,000 North Koreans have reportedly become casualties in the oblast, including some high-ranking officers. The Russians are losing so many armored vehicles in Kursk that regiments and brigades in other sectors of the front line now routinely attack in civilian compact cars.
Escalating losses are driving deep dysfunction in the battered Russian military. The Kremlin may be hoping that Ukrainian dysfunction is even worse—and it may be right.
The best and longest-serving Ukrainian brigades are desperate for fresh infantry, and yet leaders in Kyiv have assigned thousands of new recruits to newly formed brigades lacking experienced leaders and effective support units. Two of the new brigades have disintegrated, exposing their few intact sub-units to murderous Russian firepower—and getting a lot of green troops needlessly hurt or killed.
It’s a race to the bottom for both armies. The Russians are expending their last mechanized reserves for gains of a few yards. The Ukrainians are holding them off, and bleeding them pale, with under-manned brigades that—lacking access to fresh troops—shrink in size with every casualty they suffer.
Given the competing dynamics, the big question is: which army will collapse first?
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