Consumer confidence is falling, and that means Americans are changing how they eat—whether that’s what they buy at the grocery store, how often they go out to eat, or what kinds of restaurants survive.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in February, hitting its lowest point since June 2024. With inflation expectations rising and financial uncertainty growing, food decisions are shifting in real-time. Grocery shopping is becoming more budget-conscious. Fast food is holding strong while full-service restaurants struggle. Independent restaurants are forced to reinvent their business models or risk disappearing.
These shifts aren’t new—every economic downturn brings its own version of a “recession diet.” But as wallets tighten again, what does this mean for the way Americans eat today?
Grocery Shopping is Getting More Strategic
When people worry about the economy, they don’t just stop spending on food—they start spending differently.
According to the consumer confidence report, inflation expectations jumped to 6% in February, and food prices are already reflecting that. Egg prices, which were specifically mentioned in the report, have climbed again, and tariffs on imported goods could drive prices up even further. But it’s not just about costs—it’s about perception. If consumers expect prices to rise, they change their habits before the price hikes even hit.
That shift is already showing up in grocery shopping habits. Bulk buying is back, with more consumers opting for warehouse stores and family-sized packages to stretch their budgets. Private-label (store-brand) products are taking up more space in shopping carts, while premium ingredients and specialty items are seeing a decline. Grocery brands, in turn, are responding with shrinkflation, reformulating products, or emphasizing “value” lines over indulgent offerings.
The result? The way Americans shop for food is looking a lot more like it did in past economic downturns—practical, strategic, and focused on stretching every dollar.
Fast Food Wins, But Dining Out Is Changing
When money gets tight, restaurant spending is one of the first things to shift.
Historically, fast food chains have benefited from downturns, offering budget-friendly meals that feel like small indulgences without breaking the bank. That trend is holding steady, with fast food sales remaining strong even as full-service restaurants struggle. But fine dining isn’t necessarily disappearing—it’s adapting.
According to the 2025 James Beard Independent Restaurant Industry Report, independent restaurants are at a breaking point. The majority raised menu prices in 2024, but higher costs have driven diners away—72% of independent restaurants reported the same or fewer customers in 2024 compared to the previous year. Many noted that diners are coming in less frequently or choosing lower-cost options when they do. With food-away-from-home prices rising 6.8% over the past year, according to the latest data from the Consumer Price Index, and independent restaurants reporting that price hikes above 15% have led to declines in traffic, the mid-tier restaurant model is becoming harder to sustain.
That means restaurants have to choose: go cheaper or go premium. Many are pivoting to fast-casual counter service, cutting out labor costs and simplifying menus. Others are leaning into high-end tasting menus and experience-driven dining, catering to a smaller but more willing audience. The middle ground—the neighborhood bistro or the $25 burger spot—is vanishing, leaving diners with fewer options between fast and affordable or slow and expensive.
For consumers, that means dining out is becoming more of a choice than a habit. Grabbing a quick meal might still be easy, but a sit-down restaurant experience is turning into something that has to be justified—either as a special occasion or because it offers something unique.
Home Cooking is Making a Comeback (Again)
The last time consumer confidence dropped, food culture saw a shift toward home cooking, meal prepping, and nostalgia-driven comfort food. If spending habits continue in this direction, we’re likely to see a similar return to practical, affordable meals—except now, social media will shape it in new ways.
During past economic downturns, recipes that focused on cheap, filling staples like pasta, rice, beans, and potatoes surged in popularity. In the 2020 pandemic, sourdough starters and home-baking became a coping mechanism. This time, we could see a TikTok-fueled version of budget-conscious cooking—air fryer hacks, bulk meal prep challenges, and high-protein, low-cost recipes designed to make home cooking feel as engaging as eating out.
Food brands are already shifting their marketing in response. Expect to see more campaigns focused on affordability, practicality, and nostalgic comfort foods rather than indulgence and premium ingredients.
Food Culture in a Shifting Economy
As consumer confidence drops, the way Americans eat is shifting in three clear ways:
- Grocery shopping is becoming more price-conscious. Bulk buying, store brands, and practical meals are back in focus.
- Restaurants are being forced to adapt. Fast food is thriving, fine dining is shifting to “experiential” models, and the mid-tier dining scene is disappearing.
- Home cooking is on the rise. Budget-friendly meals, meal prepping, and nostalgic comfort foods are shaping what people eat at home.
Faced with rising costs and changing consumer habits, independent restaurants are adopting alternative revenue strategies. According to the James Beard Foundation, more than 85% tested non-traditional business models in 2024, including ticketed dining events, pop-ups, prepaid memberships, and exclusive tasting menus. That shift mirrors how consumers are thinking about food—if they’re spending money, they want it to feel worth it.
Food culture has always responded to consumer confidence and economic shifts. But whether it’s more meal prepping, a renewed love of fast food, or a reimagining of what fine dining even means, how we eat in 2025 is already changing.
MORE FROM FORBES
Read the full article here