Ukraine’s President Zelensky may have a price on his back, but that has not deterred him or his nation — a country determined to seek freedom and Westernize. Indeed, Zelensky had earlier messaged his chief adversary, telling President Putin he won’t survive another decade.
But if this war is to end sooner rather than later, the key is to cut off Russia’s funding and confiscate the state’s stolen wealth. Indeed, Russia is earning $500 million to $1 billion a day selling its oil and gas on world markets, used to bankroll its war against Ukraine. If the world stopped buying this oil, the war would end, preventing untold death and carnage.
Already, BP, Shell, ExxonMobil
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“Russia has done a $1 trillion damage to Ukraine,” Bill Browder told me, founder of Hermitage Capital Management — once Russia’s most extensive portfolio investor. “Since the beginning of the war, the West has frozen $350 billion of central bank reserves. The obvious thing to do is freeze that money and seize it. It’s the correct thing to do morally, financially, and politically.”
I was in Ukraine in September 2019 when the news broke that President Donald Trump and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani had “asked” Ukraine to announce a criminal investigation against then-former Vice President Joe Biden. This tactic got Trump impeached the first time, while Zelensky didn’t flinch.
But just as Trump and Giuliani thought they could outmuscle Zelensky, Putin fell into the same trap. Recall that Zelensky — a former comedian — could have cut and run at the war’s outset but instead stood tall, becoming an international statesman — while Putin hunkered down in his bunker. Ukraine could now win outright with the world’s financial and military support.
And today, Putin is weakened by many factors: an international arrest warrant, an attempted “coup,” and drones hitting Moscow’s business districts, causing him to lash out at Ukraine’s civilian population. Putin is a wanted man inside and outside Russia — no longer feared or seen as the country’s strongman. He planned to travel to South Africa for the so-called BRICS conference later this month but will instead dispatch a deputy for fear of getting arrested. Now he is isolated and sending overtures to North Korea.
“Putin is incredibly fearful, and he does not want to take risks,” says Browder, who exposed corruption in the current government. “He has been a brazen and aggressive man and has gotten away with murder. But all of a sudden, he can’t travel, and it is terrible for his prestige. He looks weak inside of his country too.”
If Ukraine Wins, Putin Is Out
Putin ascended to Russia’s presidency in May 2000, replacing Boris Yeltsin, who tried to speed up the country’s transition to democracy. But asking a government traditionally run by authoritarians to turn power over to the people is monumental. Russians obey feared leaders — a version of Machiavelli and “might makes right.”
Putin is perceived to love Mother Russia. But he governs through intimidation. And as Browder notes, everyone in Russia who enters public life — from the lowest traffic cop to the president — takes a cut off the top. It’s how Putin got to be the richest guy in the world.
The country’s oligarchs hold the money but are essentially the president’s “financial concierges.” To stay alive and prosperous, they must comply.
But such governance has left Russia in a sad state. Driving 10 miles outside of Moscow is illustrative — dirt roads, depleted hospitals, and schools with few supplies. Propaganda goes only so far. The people suffer while the ultra-wealthy and the politically connected live in luxury — a sad commentary in a country filled with cultured and educated citizens.
Enter the war against Ukraine — the kind of foreign enemy that Putin needs to avoid trouble at home. But he miscalculated, thinking he could easily conquer Ukraine. And now his troops are dying by the thousands.
“What I can imagine is that the people loyal to Putin pledge their support to someone else,” Browder told me. “If Ukraine wins, Putin loses his life, so he will throw a million more soldiers into the meat grinder. A rational person would have stopped this a long time ago. But he does not care about the national interest — only his survival. So he will sacrifice everything.”
To maintain his grip on power, Putin needs an offramp — a way to save face. That could involve “land for peace,” which Ukraine adamantly opposes. However, Russia’s calculus assumes Europe and the United States don’t have the staying power, limiting Ukraine’s ability to fight on. Its money is also on a Trump 2024 victory, which is conjecture.
The intelligent bet globally is to cut off Russia’s lifeline — the oil and gas revenues. It will save Russia long-term by ending the war and allowing it to rejoin the world community. A prolonged war further alienates Russia and forces it to hook up with Iran and North Korea, underscoring Zelensky’s image as heroic and clairvoyant — that Putin is just biding his time.
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