Recent headlines compel a look into climate science, both established and growing, which suggests we are nearing or passing several climate change tipping points. It is sobering and frightening, but somewhat offset by good news, as clean energy technologies and climate policies near their own tipping points.
The climate news in recent weeks seems like science fiction.
128 degrees Fahrenheit in Death Valley this past month, the highest temperature observed globally since at least 1931. Ocean temperatures off Florida reaching hot tub levels of 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit amid reports that 61,000 Europeans died of heat stroke last year. Devastating flooding in Beijing, record rains cause landslides in Japan, Canadian megafires burning millions of acres. And now, a new study predicts that healthy circulation in the Atlantic might collapse around midcentury and as soon as 2025.
What’s going on? Is this the new normal? We know several factors are all impinging at the same time.
We all know about average temperature rise, but less well apprehended is the way climate change exacerbates extreme conditions. This two-minute video, which is now about 12 years old, provides a short explainer.
Many natural systems impacted by climate change kick-off feedback cycles that can cause even further climate change:
- Melted ice absorbs much more heat than reflective ice, speeding up Earth’s temperature rise.
- Tundra thawing from climate change burps up huge amounts of previously frozen methane, accelerating the process further.
- Beetles are no longer killed by cold winters, so they kill millions of acres of trees, which become tinder for huge forest fires, emitting more greenhouse gases.
- Hot summers force people inside, where they run fossil-fueled air conditioners.
- Vast amounts of frozen methane in the deep ocean can melt as the ocean warms, releasing methane and carbon into the atmosphere.
The normally large temperature difference between Arctic air and temperate air creates a stable wind system circulating around the two poles, but the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the Earth, making the jet streams unstable. A couple of years ago, this caused California’s jet stream to be stuck at a high latitude and cause a 1,200-year drought, even as the Midwest hit record cold temperatures including 40 degrees F below zero in March.
Extreme temperature differences thus co-exist even as average temperature differences are small, and so we disrupt the historically stable jet stream—and that means climate extremes become the norm.
So while we must remain clear-eyed about climate change and extreme weather, we must also continue focusing on climate change policy. And here we find some climate optimism as well as a motivation to move forward.
Global Solar And Wind Are Accelerating
The International Energy Agency says installed solar power capacity is poised to nearly triple this decade, growing by almost 1,500 gigawatts over the period, exceeding natural gas capacity by 2026 and coal capacity by 2027.
But keeping up that generation growth rate to hit net zero requires annual renewable energy capacity additions almost three times higher than those of 2022, lasting at least until 2030 according to the IEA. And that requires continuous policy ambition, especially on grid integration and financing challenges.
And watch China, which may double its renewables capacity by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal of installing 1,200 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar years ahead of schedule. Goldman Sachs’ research arm reckons China’s renewables expansion could happen so rapidly the country may achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060. For context, China already has more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined and has roughly the same amount of onshore and offshore wind capacity than the next seven countries combined.
In the European Union, wind and solar produced more energy during May than all fossil fuels combined. Similarly, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal so far this year in the U.S. power sector for the first time. Renewables are breaking records across the globe.
Heat Pump Markets Are Surging
Heat pumps deliver roughly three units of heat for every unit of electricity, making electric heating cost-effective. Last year $66 billion worth of heat pumps were sold, a number projected to almost treble in the coming decade.
Besides getting this 3:1 advantage in heating, heat pumps enable electrification of many industrial processes, which could cut industrial sector greenhouse gas emissions 16 percent in 2050 compared to business as usual.
The U.S. Is Taking Policy Action, Fast
Of course, the Inflation Reduction is the most significant federal climate legislation in U.S. history, expected to help reduce emissions up to 48% by 2035 compared to 2005.
But another big policy win on the horizon is the tailpipe emissions standards being prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which have been described as the “strongest-ever pollution standards” in recent news. The proposed standards could avoid nearly 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, equivalent to more than twice total 2022 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, and could cut America’s oil imports by 20 billion barrels. While this is not a done deal, amid objections from some auto companies and fossil fuel lobbyists, the Biden administration is working hard to cement this policy.
Industrial Clean Tech Heats up
In the industrial sector, thermal batteries are emerging. They convert excess electricity into heat, store the heat for hours or days, and release the energy when it is needed. Thermal battery costs have fallen to $35-62 per megawatt-hour, making them competitive with existing natural gas equipment, with the potential to theoretically displace 11,600 petajoules of fossil fuel use per year in the U.S., or 75% of industrial non-feedstock energy demand.
Industrial decarbonization is happening all over the world: $1.1 billion from Rio Tinto and Alcoa towards a zero-carbon aluminum facility in Canada, a $1 billion investment to Salzgitter AG for zero carbon steel in Germany, $500 million to help ArcelorMittal upgrade a Spanish facility to be zero carbon and make recycled steel.
In a world where new climate disasters seem to unfold daily, it is vital to celebrate climate policy and clean energy technological advances to keep moving forward at speed and scale.
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