A Russian Tank Army Is Poised To Attack Kupyansk

Kupyansk, a city with a pre-war population of 26,000 in northeastern Ukraine just 25 miles from the Russian border, abuts the Oskil River and sits astride critical supply lines including roads and railroads.

The town has been a major objective for both sides in Russia’s three-year wider war on Ukraine. Invading Russian troops captured it in the early hours of their February 2022 invasion. Counterattacking Ukrainians liberated it seven months later after a daring 56-mile road march.

Now Kupyansk is contested again. The Russians want it as they aim to pinch a belt of Ukrainian fortress towns and cities stretching along northern and eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainians are determined to hold the city, but they’re stretched thin. Just three battalions with a few hundred troops apiece garrison the western bank of the Oskil north of Kupyansk. A much larger Ukrainian force with several 2,000-person brigades defends Kupyansk itself.

Whether and when Kupyansk falls for the second time in the wider war could hinge on whether and when the powerful Russian 1st Guards Tank Army—three divisions and five brigades with tens of thousands of troops—can secure a firmer foothold on the western bank of the Oskil River. “To capture Kupyansk, it will also be necessary to cross the Oskil River south of the city,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.

The Russians are making a heroic effort—and making progress. They crossed the river and seized the village of Novomlynsk, just north of Kupyansk, several weeks ago—reversing Ukrainian gains from December.

Their next move is obvious. Having already slipped some forces across the Oskil into the village of Dvorichna, between Novomlynsk and Kupyansk, the Russians will attempt to expand that bridgehead in order to build a defensible crossing over the Oskil, replacing a pre-war bridge that almost certainly has been destroyed in three years of back-and-forth fighting.

“Securing supply lines for the bridgehead is crucial for further advances toward Kupyansk along both banks of the river,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team noted.

Expect a bitter fight. It’s typical, as Russian engineers are erecting pontoon bridges, for the Ukrainian air force to bomb the floating spans. The bridging effort could turn into a race: can the Russians build bridges faster than the Ukrainians can destroy them?

The stakes are high. “Given the significant concentration of forces near Kupyansk, including elements of the 1st Tank Army, our team assesses that Russian forces are preparing for a direct assault on the city,” the Frontelligence Insight analysis group concluded. “The scale of this buildup indicates that securing Kupyansk is a high-priority objective for the Russian military command.”

“Overall, our team is concerned about the situation in Kupyansk and sees a real possibility of rapid deterioration in the coming period.”