It’s sometimes difficult to see the extent of a problem until someone neatly maps out the data behind it. A recent data visualization created by Visual Approach Analytics shows how much pressure the Boeing
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The chart plots the aircraft’s evolution by combining reports from Boeing and fleet data from ch-aviation. It reveals “ebbs and flows” in 737 production from the first 737-100 and -200 to the most recent, approved 737 MAX variants.
“This aircraft exposes Boeing’s prior approach to building aircraft – a very logical approach,” Courtney Miller, Founder and Managing Director of Visual Approach Analytics, writes. “Boeing ramps production to build aircraft that are in demand but retracts production when they are not. This creates the dips that arrive roughly once a decade due to economic downturns, 9/11, or most noticeably the MAX grounding and arrival of COVID-19 in 2020.”
Following the first grounding of the Boeing 737 fleet after two tragic accidents, and compounded by the slow-down from COVID-19, the Boeing 737 production reached its narrowest point in history.
As demand returned with the lifting of COVID restrictions and air traffic recovery, production on the 737 MAX line has yet to return to its former strength. The end of the chart comes before Boeing faced the most recent 737-9 MAX accident on Alaska Airlines
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Recovering The Boeing 737 Production Line
Boeing had been planning a production ramp-up to 42 737 aircraft per month before the accident, but the FAA has now limited the manufacturer’s production to 38 units per month. Despite this, as analysts on Leeham News and Analysis report, Boeing has asked suppliers to stick to the higher production rate, anticipating the eventual lifting of production limits.
“I would ask all of you to bear with us,” Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of Global Supply Chain and Fabrication at Boeing Commercial Aircraft, said at an aerospace supplier conference earlier this week. “Let us get through this process with the FAA, the audit process, and see what the findings are and how we mitigate those findings…and what it’s going to take to get back to the production rates as we forecasted them before.”
Ihssane also encouraged Boeing’s suppliers to focus on quality and contact Boeing if they have any issues.
Reports emerged earlier this week that Boeing’s 737 production faced additional issues. Misdrilled holes in window frames, which are out of alignment on some fuselages, required rework of 50 planes. Boeing dedicated “factory days” this week to resolve the issue.
Avoiding Quality Escapes At Boeing
Addressing what Boeing refers to as ‘quality escapes’ in its production and at its suppliers will be critical to the recovery of the 737 production line.
In its preliminary report on the Alaska Airlines 737-9 MAX accident, the National Transportation Safety Board determined four critical bolts were missing on the mid exit door plug pulled out of the plane. These bolts, which prevent upward movement of the assembly, may have been removed when workers opened the door plug to repair a separate production issue with five damaged rivets on a frame next to the door plug.
The NTSB investigation found that “to open the MED plug, the two vertical movement arrestor bolts and two upper guide track bolts had to be removed.”
The bolts are not present in a photo taken by Boeing interior staff later that day. However, the NTSB investigation has yet to publish findings on what happened to these four critical bolts, pending relevant production records.
“The investigation continues to determine what manufacturing documents were used to authorize the opening and closing of the left MED plug during the rivet rework,” the NTSB wrote.
Airbus’ Narrowbody Aircraft Lead Widens
Boeing has an urgent need to recover a steady production of 737 aircraft. Airbus delivered 571 A320-family planes last year, while Boeing delivered 396 737s. Furthermore, Airbus plans to increase production of narrowbody planes from 45 to 75 per month by 2026.
As Forecast International analysts report, Boeing had an order backlog of 4,799 737 narrowbody jets at the end of December. That is a 77% share of its total commercial aircraft orders (6,216). Airbus had a backlog of 8,598 aircraft, 91% (7,797) in the narrowbody A220 and A320 families.
Airbus has taken the lead in the duopoly of global commercial jets. Looking at product diversification, Boeing is stronger on widebody aircraft, with a total backlog of 1,417 compared to Airbus’s 801. Airbus relies more on its narrowbody production than Boeing. The European aircraft manufacturer also has a fully booked production line. While Airbus is examining options to satisfy additional demand from Boeing customers, it is unlikely to find enough capacity to meet the high demand for Boeing’s planned new variants of the 737.
Boeing has limited time to address its current challenges and bring 737 production back to historic levels.
An Aircraft Monopoly Would Be A Disaster For Aviation
As the most recent 737 MAX crisis plays out, insights the former head of the International Air Transport Association shared with me during the first 737 MAX production halt in 2019 still apply.
Alexandre de Juniac, then Director General and CEO of IATA, told me, “We cannot go below two. Airplanes are expensive already. But there are two reasons why it’s a concern for us. We rely on our two suppliers, and we have no interest in seeing one supplier banned or pull out of the market. It would be a disaster for us. And, secondly, there is a clear safety process and recertification issue that has to be solved to restore the confidence of the public. That is a point in which I think there is still work to be done.”
Boeing has committed itself to doing the work in the past, regaining the confidence of regulators, customers, and the flying public. However, there is still work ahead before the 57-year-old 737 aircraft family can surpass its historic levels. The recent 737 production fluctuation is more than a controlled ebb and flow. It is a strong contraction, which could lead to the birth of something different at Boeing.
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun has urged employees “to simply focus on every next airplane while doing everything possible to support our customers, follow the lead of our regulator, and ensure the highest standard of safety and quality in all that we do.”
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