On April 20, Russian troops took advantage of the confusion resulting from a reshuffling of Ukrainian forces west of the ruins of the eastern city of Avdiivka—and attacked.
Breaking through positions held by the Ukrainian army’s 115th Mechanized Brigade, which had recently rotated into positions in Ocheretyne, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade quickly advanced several miles to the west. Russian reinforcements raced into the breach, cementing the territorial gains.
Three months later, it’s happening again—and in the same sector. In just the last week, Russian regiments and brigades have advanced nearly four miles farther west from Ocheretyne.
Marching .6 miles a day might not seem particularly fast, but by the standards of Russia’s 28-month wider war on Ukraine, it’s practically a sprint. Famed Ukrainian war correspondent Yuriy Butusov called the situation around Ocheretyne “critically difficult.”
Amid staggeringly high Russian casualties and extreme losses in armored vehicles that are contributing to a slow de-mechanization of the Russian military, it’s easy to lose sight of Russia’s enduring advantages over Ukraine as the wider war grinds into its third year.
Specifically, Russia still has more people and heavy equipment than Ukraine. Along with the political strictures any authoritarian regime enjoys, that helps the Russians tolerate much greater losses than the Ukrainians can accept.
So even as it loses more than a thousand people a day killed and wounded, the Russian military keeps attacking. Every attack is an opportunity to break through.
Confusion among Ukrainian commanders is a factor. The Russian breakthrough around Ocheretyne in April threw the Ukrainians off-balance—and they’re still struggling to recover.
“The Russian command attacks … those brigades that have the weakest management and organization,” Butusov explained, seemingly referring to the 110th Mechanized Brigade and 111th Territorial Defense Brigade. “That is, the enemy is not looking for … the most vulnerable defense borders, but the most vulnerable units.”
At their worst, the Ukrainian forces west of Avdiivka are totally befuddled. Drone crews and electronic warfare troops are “scattered and unorganized,” Butusov wrote.
The worst-case scenario for the Ukrainians is pretty dire. If the Russian force—including the 433rd, 506th and 1195th Motor Rifle Regiments—can advance another nine miles to the west, it will reach Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, twin strongholds that function as a sort of gateway to Dnipro Oblast, which has so far remained firmly under Ukrainian control.
The battle is fluid. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies tallied 27 attempts by Russian troops to penetrate the unstable Ukrainian line east of Pokrovsk on Monday. Twenty-two of the attacks failed, CDS reported. But that means five succeeded.
Butusov expressed worry but not panic. “I cannot say that the Ukrainian command does not see and understand the critical situation,” he wrote. “There’s a lot going on, none of the commanders sit with their hands folded.”
It would help, he stressed, if Ukrainian electronic warfare troops in the sector would stop jamming friendly forces. “Our own [jamming] destroys a significant number of our own drones.”
Sources:
1. Yuriy Butusov: https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid02bReTHGpWHbw8VWzJSeQfhYdHRLnk1AT1QkgzR2LYzXJQ9CDBnKktiAquFL2KaLcxl
2. Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=48.54974363330061%2C36.08313401148888&z=9
3. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-220724
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