Despite knowing China is America’s “pacing” threat, the 118th Congress failure to sufficiently fund the requirements of the U.S. military may have a higher likelihood of undermining our security than does China.
A government shutdown, the failure to pass a defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 2024, or even a continuing resolution, means that the Department of Defense (DOD) will be restricted in how it operates for some period during the next year; will lose critical new initiatives to deal with the array of growing threats to America; and will hasten a decline of U.S. military capability and capacity.
The reason is simple: funding adjustments required for the new fiscal year legally will not go into effect. Gridlock and Congressional budget inaction come at a steep price, especially given the scale and scope of the current threat environment. While each of the military services will be negatively affected, this is particularly challenging for the Air Force, as Airmen struggle to meet the demands of our National Defense Strategy with the oldest and smallest inventory of aircraft its entire history.
With Russia continuing its fight in Ukraine, China acting aggressively in the Pacific, plus Iran and North Korea continuing to present serious dangers, along with unceasing terrorist threats, combatant commanders around the world are calling on the Department of the Air Force for more air and space power. In fact, it is not possible to employ joint power projection without some element of the Department of the Air Force being involved. However, circumstances risk stretching our Airmen and Guardians to the breaking point as they have insufficient resources to meet these demands. Said more directly, the world is on fire, and the current Congressional budget dysfunction is threatening to undercut what our air and space warriors need to deter conflict or fight and win if necessary.
Nor is the Air Force approaching this period from a position of strength. Defense budgets are already tight—declining when considering inflation—with current funding plans driving the service to divest a net 1,000 aircraft over the next several years, making it even smaller.
Today, the average age of the Air Force’s fighter force exceeds thirty years. F-15s, F-16s, and A-10s were designed while the Vietnam War was still being fought, were first flown in the 1970s, and were produced predominantly in the 1980s. They nevertheless comprise the bulk of the nation’s fighter inventory.
The T-38 training aircraft the Air Force still uses today first flew in 1959. This past Friday the Air Force announced that it will fall short of planned pilot production this year because, “engine issues with T-38s have harmed the Air Force’s schedule of getting pilots experience.”
The youngest B-52—the bomber that comprises over half the nation’s bomber inventory—is 62 years old, all of them predating the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Congress risks exacerbating these challenges given their inability to pass a budget on time, risking a government shutdown, or at best, passing a continuing resolution that will still be crippling. Congress owes our Airmen better than political gridlock that ultimately will harm our military.
A continuing resolution is particularly harmful to the Air Force on several fronts. First and foremost, it robs the service of the ability to modernize. Funding lines are held at FY2023 levels and new programs cannot be started. It would be like trying to build a house, but failing to manage money such that your contractors could be paid as they execute tasks. Building grinds to a halt without cash. Put that in a national security context and the risks are acute.
The current wave of Air Force modernization is immensely consequential because it has been deferred since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The size and capabilities of the Air Force were significantly reduced after the end of the Cold War by short-term budget choices, not long-term strategy. In the 1990s, the desire for a post-Cold War peace dividend drove disproportionate cuts to the Air Force. As a result, the combat Air Force today is less than half the size it was in 1991 when we fought Desert Storm.
In the 2000s, the Air Force’s share of the budget was significantly reduced further to fund the ground centric operations in Afghanistan and Iraq—an era of strategic distraction where our focus departed from the existential threats posed by China and Russia to counterinsurgency conflicts of choice. In the 20 years post 9/11, the Army received over $1.3 trillion more, and the Navy about $900 billion more than the Air Force over the same timeframe. In the 2010s, the Budget Control Act further delayed investing in the Air Force. The service once again was forced to cut capacity and procurement leading to the reduction in its size to the smallest since its inception.
After three decades of underfunding, the Air Force now finds itself in a position where it must either reset nearly all its core areas with new equipment, or sunset missions for want of viable hardware. Aircraft older than the crews flying them simply cannot last forever. That is why the Air Force is buying the F-35, F-15EX, B-21, KC-46, T-7, MH-139, E-7, and HH-60W—plus nuclear triad modernization—all at the same time. These buys were never intended to be so concentrated—but years of neglect in funding the Air Force saw these programs delayed and now the service is facing a crisis. A continuing resolution will further undermine Air Force recapitalization because the cash necessary for sustaining these planned procurements—specific program increases from FY2023 to FY2024—will not be available.
This also extends to munitions accounts—something on the forefront of everyone’s minds given the of expenditure of weapons in the Russia/Ukraine war. Not only must we replenish our stocks, but we must also buy the next generation systems required to deter aggression from China and Russia.
Nor are the challenges restricted to hardware. Modern equipment requires modern military construction as well. If the Department of the Air Force is going to operate new equipment, then it needs modernized facilities. Consider that the bulk of our Air Force consists of geriatric fighter, bomber and trainer aircraft that were designed and built before the internet was invented. Their replacements are products of the information age. They require a robust set of technologies at bases to empower their daily use. This is akin to the enterprise required to operate a smart phone, versus a land line. Without wireless connectivity, routine software upgrades and access to apps, smartphones are bricks. The same holds true for new aircraft and spacecraft. Their bases require core information technology upgrades to allow them to function effectively.
The stakes are especially high when it comes to construction projects related to our ground based strategic nuclear deterrent—the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile. This enterprise requires significant construction for the missile silos, crew facilities, plus the associated command and control elements. We simply cannot fail to keep pace with our nuclear enterprise modernization when Russia has extensively modernized its nuclear weapons capabilities when the U. S. failed to do so. Putin continues to rattle his nuclear saber in Europe and China is in the middle of an aggressive nuclear breakout in the Pacific.
Taking care of Airmen will also be impeded by a continuing resolution. Funding flying hours is required to train to be able and ready to fight. Today’s Air Force pilots are getting fewer and fewer flying hours. As a young Captain flying F-15C’s in Japan in the late 1970’s we fighter pilots used to joke about the abysmal flying time our potential adversary pilots were getting—now our pilots are flying less than their opponents.
The National Commission on Military Aviation Safety tabulated that a series of actions, especially the Budget Control Act and numerous continuing resolutions, put aircrews at serious risk. From 2013 to 2018, the commission determined cuts to flying hours and maintenance played a key role in 198 deaths and 157 aircraft destroyed. Given that flying hours provided to Air Force pilots are at their lowest levels since the end of the Vietnam War, staying at current low flying hour levels and/or further cuts are both beyond imprudent.
The current Congressional budgeting dysfunction and associated fallout effects also send a tremendously negative signal to airmen at a time when recruiting and retention is a major challenge. 2023 marks the first year since 1999 when the Air Force will miss its recruiting goal. On top of that, the service continues to carry a persistent pilot shortfall that has held steady around 2,000 for far too many years.
A continuing resolution will deprive the service of the resources necessary to help address these shortfalls. Given high operational tempo demands, this leaves too few Airmen balancing a high workload. Extend that too long and Airmen and their families grow demoralized and frustrated. This effectively drives highly trained, otherwise motivated personnel out the door. This is beyond foolish and is a self-inflicted wound. These individuals have made a commitment to serve, Congress owes them the resources and sufficient teammates to execute their missions.
For far too long, Airmen have been asked to balance far too much mission load with an inadequate set of resources. A continuing resolution simply makes things worse. Add a government shutdown into the mix and the challenges compound markedly. Today, the world is an incredibly dangerous place, and our adversaries will take advantage of whatever mistakes the Congress makes. No amount of funding can make up for lost time. It is time for Congress to do its job so our men and women in uniform can do theirs.
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