It happened again.
For the third day in a row, a Russian drone winged unimpeded over a Ukrainian air base. After a longer period of surveillance—an hour or so, in this case—Russian missiles streaked in, likely destroying at least one precious Ukrainian warplane.
The Ukrainian air force’s air-defense crisis deepens. Unless and until the air force can start shooting down the Russian drones flying over its bases, it will probably keep losing warplanes it can’t easily replace.
The drumbeat of airfield raids should panic Ukrainian commanders. On Monday, a Russian drone spotted six Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighters parked in the open in broad daylight on the tarmac at Mirgorod air base, in northern Ukraine 100 miles from the border with Russia.
A Russian Iskander ballistic missile streaked in, destroying two of the precious supersonic fighters.
Yesterday, something similar happened. A Russian drone winged over the Ukrainian air base in Poltava, just east of Mirgorod and also 100 miles from the border. After hours of surveillance, an Iskander missile struck—damaging, if not destroying, a Ukrainian army Mil Mi-24 gunship helicopter.
Today, the Russians targeted Dolgintsevo air base near Kryvyi Rih, just 45 miles from the front line in southern Ukraine. A drone scanned the base, and as many as three missiles—Iskanders, apparently—rained down.
Captures from the Russian drones’ video feed seem to confirm the destruction of two airframes: one, a non-flying decoy Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet; the other, an operational Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter.
We can assume the Su-25 was decoy because it matched the profile of another decoy Su-25 that the Russians struck at Dolgintsevo back in November, during an earlier round of strikes on Ukrainian air bases that destroyed two MiG-29s and an operational Su-25.
In all since the fall, Russian raids on Ukrainian airfields have knocked out two Su-27s, three MiG-29s, an Su-25 and potentially the Mi-24. It’s an unsustainable rate of loss for a military that might have fewer than 100 operational warplanes and just 50 or so gunships.
Fresh airframes are coming from Ukraine’s European allies, including 85 Lockheed Martin F-16s and perhaps a dozen Dassault Mirage 2000s. The problem, of course, is that the F-16s and Mirages will also be vulnerable to Russian drone and missile strikes as long as they’re parked in the open in broad daylight.
It’s an air defense crisis. Normally, the Ukrainians would protect their most important bases with layers of surface-to-air missiles. But the Ukrainian air force and army are struggling to simultaneously cover cities, major troop concentrations and front-line bases such as the Mirgorod, Poltava and Dolgintsevo airfields.
It’s apparent that, in prioritizing air cover for the cities, the Ukrainian armed forces have left their airfields less protected. The Russian drone that surveilled Poltava was visible to everyday Ukrainians on the ground for three hours before the Iskander missile struck. Clearly, no one had any way of shooting it down.
Help is coming to Ukraine. The United States just announced a $2.3-billion aid package that will reportedly include numerous air-defense systems, including long-range Patriot missiles and medium-range NASAMS missiles.
But it’s possible these new defenses will also end up protecting cities instead of air bases. “You’ve got to make sure you have air defenses in place to try to protect the areas in which you’re making investments,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
Sources:
1. War Vehicle Tracker: https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1808534292508659978, https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1808218837063721464; https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1808171970237780212
2. U.S. Defense Department: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3827072/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
3. Antony Blinken: https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1808161413342384368
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