Potentially hundreds of Ukrainian troops are nearly surrounded outside the village of Prohres in eastern Ukraine. It’s the latest setback for Ukrainian forces in what may currently be their most vulnerable sector as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its 29th month.
There were ominous signs on the battleground west of the ruins of Avdiivka in recent days. In the span of a week, a clutch of Russian motor rifle regiments marched four miles to the west—a rapid advance by the standards of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Rolling toward the Prohres, a tiny community with around a hundred homes, the Russian formation split in two and mostly encircled two battalions from the Ukrainian army’s 31st Mechanized Brigade.
Friendly troops aren’t far away, and the nearly surrounded troops are holding out. At present, “there is no order to withdraw,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State noted.
But that order could come soon. It’s the policy of Ukrainian commander-in-chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi that his forces shouldn’t ever fight to the last person. “It’s very important for us to save the lives of our soldiers,” Syrskyi told The Guardian. “We don’t defend ruins to the death.”
Giving up a few fields outside one tiny village isn’t catastrophic for Ukraine. What’s more worrying are the circumstances that led to the loss. It seems a front-line Ukrainian brigade collapsed amid sector-wide problems with Ukrainian command and control.
“The operational and tactical situation became critical over the weekend due to the chaotic withdrawal of one of the infantry brigades,” Deep State explained, perhaps referring to the 110th Mechanized Brigade or 111th Territorial Defense Brigade.
Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov had warned about dysfunction among the Ukrainian brigades around Prohres. “The main problem,” he reported, “is primarily in the management and organization of our actions.”
“When a poorly managed crew is attacked, it can’t hold,” Butusov added.
After the collapse, the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade—the main operator of the army’s American-made armored vehicles—rushed into the breach in a desperate attempt to prevent a deeper Russian breakthrough.
But the outnumbered brigade “could not restrain the enemy,” Deep State reported. Now the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the part of the 31st Mechanized Brigade that isn’t surrounded outside Prohres hold the line west of the village.
It’s no secret how the isolated Ukrainian battalions are surviving. Russian and Ukrainian forces routinely resupply isolated troops with heavy drones dropping bundles of food, water and ammunition.
But drone deliveries can’t feed and water hundreds of people indefinitely, replace missiles and other heavy munitions or get the wounded to safety. The battalions cut off near Prohres will have to fight their way to the west—or wait for brigades to fight their way to the east.
The alternative is slow starvation—or swift destruction as the larger Russian force attacks from all sides.
Sources:
1. Deep State: https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19955
2. Yuriy Butusov: https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid02bReTHGpWHbw8VWzJSeQfhYdHRLnk1AT1QkgzR2LYzXJQ9CDBnKktiAquFL2KaLcxl
3. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia
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