Seventeen days into Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian advance has slowed but hasn’t stopped. And on the bleeding edge of the battle, the fighting is chaotic, confusing and brutal.
“The front-line situation remains fluid,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight explained.
An engagement in the town of Russkaya Konopelka, four miles east of Sudzha—the former locus of the Ukrainian invasion—might be typical. On or just before Tuesday, the Ukrainian vanguard rolled into Russkaya Konopelka in at least one Kozak armored truck. It’s possible the truck and its crew belonged to either the 54th or 61st Mechanized Brigades, apparently the nearest big Ukrainian formations.
Racing into Russkaya Konopelka from the west along the main road through the village, the Kozak arrived at an intersection at the same moment a Russian BMP-2 tracked fighting vehicle arrived from the perpendicular road to the north. Adding to the confusion, another Russian fighting vehicle—a newer BMP-3—lay in wait just west of the intersection.
The BMPs may have come from the Russian 56th Air Assault Regiment, which—according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies—is operating in and around Russkaya Konopelka.
As a Russian ZALA drone observed, the BMP-3 opened fire with its 2A72 30-millimeter auto-cannon, targeting what the crew clearly believed was a Ukrainian vehicle. Instead, the BMP-3 demolished the Russian BMP-2, lighting it ablaze from point-blank range as the Ukrainian Kozak shifted into reverse and retreated back to where it came from.
The BMP-on-BMP violence could be a harbinger of Russkaya Konopelka’s fall. According to Ukrainian analysis group Deep State, the village is now firmly within contested territory.
As the Ukrainian invasion of Russia grinds into its third week, the Ukrainian invasion corps—around a dozen front-line battalions drawn from at least eight mechanized and air assault brigades—now control 315 square miles of Kursk. Another 160 square miles are contested.
As of Tuesday, the Ukrainians had lost around 65 vehicles that the analysts at Oryx could identify. The Russians had lost around 40.
Bits and pieces of around two dozen Russian regiments and brigades are trying to hold back the advancing Ukrainians. But many of the troops are pro-Russia Chechens or young and poorly-trained Russian conscripts who aren’t even supposed to see combat, per longstanding Kremlin policy.
The Kremlin has been reluctant to shift its best mechanized units from eastern Ukraine to Kursk, lest the redeployment sap the momentum of Russia’s offensive in the east. But some heavier Russian forces are beginning to arrive in Kursk—altering the dynamics on the battlefield.
“It appears that Russian forces have managed to slow down the Ukrainian advances and bring in reserves, if not to fully contain the Ukrainian troops, then at least to prevent rapid expansion deeper into Kursk Oblast,” Frontelligence Insight noted.
“However, this does not necessarily mean that Ukrainian forces are contained or won’t advance further,” the analysis group added. “The concentration of Ukrainian forces might still be sufficient for continued advances and potential breakthroughs.”
Sources:
1. Frontelligence Insight: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-incursion-extracting-facts
2. Special Kherson Cat: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1826553637302091779
3. Deep State: https://deepstatemap.live/#11/51.2333325/35.1947021
4. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-230824
5. Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=51.1815146606749%2C35.398660572314256&z=13
6. Naalsio: https://x.com/naalsio26/status/1826072342599975302
Read the full article here