U.S. Army Private Travis T. King bolted across the DMZ into North Korea on Tuesday. His apparent defection is vexing for both sides, maybe more so for Pyongyang.
The strange story of Private King became public just after he had finished serving time in a South Korean detention facility following his arrest by South Korean police after two separate assaults (one at a club) last fall.
According to Reuters, King was being escorted by Army officials to Seoul-Incheon International Airport to fly home and face some sort of disciplinary action at Fort Bliss, Texas. He was somehow left unattended by his escort, passed alone through security to his departure gate and then fled, said an official cited by Reuters.
From there he may have taken a train or bus from the airport, joining a civilian tour of the heavily fortified demilitarized zone (DMZ) dividing South Korea and the North. An eyewitness at the DMZ told Reuters that King, wearing a black t-shirt, jeans and a black hat suddenly ran between two well-known blue buildings used for international negotiations which straddle the border between the two countries.
American soldiers and South Korean border guards apparently ran after King shouting for him to stop but he crossed into North Korea before they could reach him and was not seen thereafter. Operationally, King served as a Cavalry Scout with the Korean Rotational Force, part of the U.S. security commitment to South Korea.
King reportedly may have been troubled by family issues back in the U.S. but his motivation for dashing across the border is unclear. The Pentagon had yet to call the incident a defection as of Wednesday.
How Private King’s detention in North Korea may pan out for the U.S. and the erratic nuclear state is an interesting question Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Korea Chair deputy director, Ellen Kim, says. “Everybody wants to know whether this is a problem or an opportunity for both countries.”
The incident was not only unexpected, it happened at a critical moment U.S./South Korea – North Korea relations Kim notes. Washington and Pyongyang have not engaged in any dialogue for over a year. The U.S. and South Korea are currently in the midst of a Nuclear Consultative Group meeting to discuss joint planning and execution in the event of a potential nuclear war with the North.
The USS Kentucky, the first U.S. nuclear-armed submarine to visit South Korea since the 1980s, has also recently arrived there as a “manifestation of U.S. commitments” according to White House Indo-Pacific National Security Coordinator, Kurt Campbell. Last week North Korea fired its new solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-18, for a second time, in protest.
“This is happening at a very delicate moment,” Kim observes. “North Korea doesn’t want to sit down [at the negotiating table] with the U.S. but this incident essentially forces North Korea to sit down with the U.S. I think North Korea will not welcome this situation.”
Private King’s entry is likely being treated initially as a threat by the North Koreans CSIS’ Korea chair says. “They’ll be trying to figure out what his motive is and North Korea is still basically in lock-down mode since the Pandemic began. He may be considered a public health threat.”
Seen from the perspective of the U.S. and South Korea, King’s act looks like the act of and unstable individual. But North Korea itself is an unstable, suspicious society governed by a paranoid establishment. Is it possible the North Koreans might initially consider King’s surprising dash a tactic by America to get it to resume dialogue again?
Ms. Kim says the North Koreans may indeed be wary of such a possibility. “That’s why I think there’s been at least a one-day pause with nothing coming out of North Korea. They’re questioning King about why he crossed into the country and whether he achieved entry with any aid from the United States. I’m sure they’re monitoring the international news so they’ll figure out that that’s not the case.”
Once they’ve figured out why King crossed the DMZ, North Korea may seek to use him for their own propaganda purposes Kim adds. “If this is a defection, I think there’s a high chance that they may consider using him for domestic propaganda to shore up the regime.”
While Washington may recognize an opening to speak with the North Koreans, it must consider the possibility that they may use King as leverage to extract concessions. “I don’t think they [N. Korea] will be successful,” Kim opines. “If you look at past [defections], the U.S. has never allowed North Korea any serious concessions. But this will be a headache for the Biden administration.”
The incident will almost certainly precipitate changes in U.S Army/military policy regarding service personnel who have gotten into trouble in South Korea and who face disciplinary action Kim agrees.
“The U.S. even cancelled tours of the JSA (border Joint Security Area) right after this happened so I think that both the ROK [Armed Forces] and DoD will consider changing their policies so nothing like this happens again.”
Another unknown is whether King’s runaway status will still be news next week given the complicated state of affairs between Washington and Pyongyang?
“It could continue to rattle,” Kim says. “North Korea celebrates its ‘Victory Day’ on July 27 [marking the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement which brought a Korean War of 1950–53]. Usually, they have huge, staged celebrations. It can be expected that they may make some kind of provocation. We’ll have to wait and see what happens next.”
Regardless, holding onto Private King may be more of an annoyance to North Korea than a benefit. His status as a rank-and-file cavalry scout would likely yield little useful strategic information and his treatment will be monitored by the Pentagon.
Reuters pointed out that Pyongyang has a standard procedure for treating American and other Western detainees or defectors well to avoid political blowback. The country has to devote a security/surveillance team to them, arrange an interpreter, a private vehicle, driver and lodging according to a former North Korean diplomat.
That doesn’t mean the wayward soldier will be returning home any time soon. But his flight adds yet another wrinkle to the ongoing tension between the North, the U.S. and South Korea.
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