New video footage shared on Russian military Telegram channels is claimed to show mass production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones inside Russia. But while the video itself may be genuine, it does not necessarily signify a rise in drone attacks is imminent.
Russia’s Drone War
Shahed attacks on Ukraine are already a nightly event; last night the defenders brought down 18 of the 22 drones incoming. The drones have an eight-foot wingspan and are known as ‘mopeds’ from the puttering of the engine they approaches at around 100 mph. The drone carries a warhead of around 100 pounds of explosive and while typical targets are electrical substations and transformers, they can cause devastating damage to apartment blocks.
Over 4,400 Shahed attacks have been documented in the war so far, or an average more more than 240 per month. This makes it far more common than any Russian-made long-range weapon. Their low cost and relative ease of production compared to cruise and ballistic missiles mean Shaheds are now the mainstay of Russia’s strategic campaign.
The Shahed attacks started in September 2022, and at that point the drones were imported directly from Iran. Later Russian began to assemble Shahed, known as Geran (“Germanium”) in their own facility, with plans to produce them entirely locally. Over the past 18 months we have seen a steady progression as captured Shaheds have turned up with increasing amounts of Russian components and new bodies apparently built in Russia.
New Production
Last August, intelligence sources identified a giant factory site which was being turned over to Shahed production. The facility, located in the in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan in central Russia, will ultimately aims to produce more than 1,600 Shaheds a month.
The new video likely shows this site and has the caption “Shoigu’s Greenhouse,” referencing Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and the “growing geraniums.” It shows rows of Shahed bodies, both the standard white version and the new stealthier black version. Roughly 100 Shahed bodies are visible, and in a still, workers appear to be fitting engines and other components.
However, it should be noted that the body shells of the Shahed are the easiest part to mass produce. Everything else is more complex and more challenging to source, including the engine and in particular the electronics. Previous analyses have shown that the Shaheds, like many of the other weapons used by Russia, are heavily reliant on imported electronics with a recent study finding components from the U.S., China and Switzerland. Sourcing these parts may be increasingly challenging. The Russian-made version of the Shahed uses the Kometa jam-resistant satellite navigation module; this appears to be made in Russia, but it is not known how many Russia can actually produce.
Potemkin Drones?
Last July we were treated to a similar display with a TV documentary showing ZALA CEO Alexandr Zakharov touring a new facility producing Lancet tactical kamikaze drones. Again, hundreds of drone bodies were on display, and Zakharov talked about a massive increase in production, but after the video the number of lancets seen on the battlefield actually decreased – possibly due to Ukrainian action.
While the factory at Alabuga may be turning out hundreds of carbon-fiber drone bodies, this does not mean they can make finished drones.
And although it was expected that the number of Shahed attacks would increase steadily as Russia’s assembly and production efforts ramped up, this is now what we have seen.
The number of Shaheds shot down by Ukrainian forces (one the most consistent measures) went from 230 last October to 303 November, rising to a peak of 508 in December, then falling back again to 294 in January and 284 in February. This does not suggest a strong upward trend.
Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russian can produce around 300-350 Shaheds per month, which is in line with the number of attacks seen. And according to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi of Ukrainian intelligence, the only part which is completely made in Russia is the body.
The drones on display look impressive but they may have something in common with the Potemkin Villages apparently built in the 18th century by a Russian nobleman to impress Tsarina Catherine the Great. These were intended to show off the prosperity of his estates, but only from a distance; up close they could be seen to be facades.
Certainly Russia has ambitions to produce large numbers of Shaheds, but it is not yet clear whether the project is real or another scam whose real aim is extracting rubles from the deep pockets of the notoriously corrupt Ministry of Defence.
If the video shows genuine large-scale production, we should see an uptick in Shahed attacks within weeks. Unless of course the large and conspicuous Shahed production facility should happen to be targeted by Ukraine’s own arsenal of long-range strike drones.
Read the full article here