Putin Ordered His Troops To Defeat The Invasion Of Kursk By Oct. 1

In a surprise move on Aug. 6, a strong Ukrainian force—eventually numbering around a dozen battalions each with up to 400 troops—breached the defenses along the Russia-Ukraine border adjacent to Russia’s Kursk Oblast. In a heady couple of weeks before the front stabilized, the Ukrainians routed poorly-trained Russian conscripts and captured 400 square miles of Kursk Oblast.

“This has put [Russian Pres. Vladimir] Putin under pressure,” U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said.

Rightly embarrassed, Putin ordered the Kremlin to recapture Kursk by Oct. 1. And on Wednesday, Russian troops dutifully launched a counterattack along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient. “Russia’s counteroffensive to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region has officially begun,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola announced.

The Russians targeted Snagosk, a village just south of the Seym River, eight miles north of the border. The main thrust involved at least eight tanks and other armored vehicles from the Russian 51st Airborne Regiment. Hours into the counterattack, the village remains contested. “The situation on the left flank of our group in Kursk worsened,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State noted.

Simultaneously, a separate Russian force rolled toward the village of Ulanok, on the Ukrainians’ right flank in Kursk.

Exactly how the Russians got to Snagosk is unclear. There are two routes to the village from Russian-controlled territory: from the northwest across the Seym River or across dry ground from the nearby town of Korenevo. The latter seems likelier, as the Ukrainian military has destroyed every permanent bridge over the Seym in Kursk—and also destroyed most or all of the pontoon bridges the Russians have assembled in the area.

It’s a delicate situation for the Ukrainians at a delicate time. The general staff in Kyiv took a big risk in ordering an attack in Kursk. In eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, the powerful Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army has been steadily marching toward Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian stronghold sitting astride some important supply lines.

The Ukrainian defenders around Pokrovsk are outnumbered four-to-one—and recently lost their best brigade when the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade finally rotated off the front line after spending a startling 15 months in continuous combat. In deciding what to do with its few available forces, the general staff in Kyiv calculated that capturing part of Kursk was worth losing part of Donetsk.

While the Ukrainian generals did keep a few brigades in reserve for Pokrovsk—and those brigades recently managed to slow, though not halt, the Russian advance—they sent most of their best free troops and equipment into Kursk, including elite air assault brigades with their Western-made tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Now those Ukrainians in Kursk are under attack at the farthest reach of their supply lines threading into the oblast from the Ukrainian city of Sumy.

The front line is in flux. According to the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian analysis group, the Russians recaptured Ulanok on the right of the salient. But at the same time, Ukrainian troops southwest of Snagosk, on the left of the salient, are attacking even as Snagosk itself is at risk of falling back under Russian control.

All the while, the Russians continue chipping away at Ukrainian defenses around Pokrovsk. “The situation on the southern part of the Pokrovsk direction remains extremely difficult,” CDS explained. “The enemy has established a numerical advantage in this area.”

Five weeks after the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, it’s still debatable whether the decision to invade was the right one for Ukraine. If the Ukrainians hang on in Kursk, they may be able to trade back the oblast in any future peace negotiations. But if they’re overwhelmed by Russian counterattacks and lose Kursk, what will they have gained?

“Two things are clear,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Healey said. “Ukrainians need to strengthen their front line in the east and they will look to hold the territory in Kursk.” But it’s unclear the Ukrainians can do both with the forces they have.