Future historians could potentially refer to the Russia-Ukraine War as the “Drone War” because of the pivotal role that drone technology has played throughout the conflict. Indeed, the initial months of the war were shaped by Russia’s Orlan-10 and Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB-2 drones. In the current phase of the war, Ukraine is rapidly developing and deploying new drones, while also receiving large quantities of drones in foreign aid packages. Meanwhile, Russia has improved its reconnaissance drones and fielding large quantities of loitering munitions developed through joint development efforts with other countries. As the war enters 2025, drone technology will continue to evolve, with both sides increasingly incorporating swarm technology into their drone fleets.
Swarms Of Drones
Swarm technology enables multiple drones to function as a coordinated unit rather than as isolated entities. Managing even a small group of drones is challenging, and the complexity grows significantly with larger swarms. The algorithms behind swarm technology must support decentralized yet synchronized decision-making in dynamic environments, often in the presence of enemy jamming. Despite these challenges, swarms offer substantial advantages, particularly in coordinating the attack with real-time information sharing. For example, as a swarm approaches its target, the lead drone can identify the counter-drone systems and relay the threat details to the rest of the swarm. The swarm can then take evasive action to increase their likelihood of completing their mission. Recognizing these benefits, many countries are investing heavily in swarm technology and incorporating it into development efforts and test exercises.
Ukraine currently holds an edge in swarm technology through its ability to leverage advancements from the commercial sector, including artificial intelligence which supports a swarm’s ability to make decisions. In 2024, Ukraine reportedly began deploying small swarms of 3 to 10 drones. The size of the swarms and the usage of swarming systems are both expected to increase in 2025. Meanwhile, Russia has yet to integrate swarm technology into its drone fleet. However, given its expertise in military drone technology, Russia is expected to catch up this year and also field advanced swarming systems. They will most likely integrate swarm technology into their loitering munitions, which are deployed in large groups as part of coordinated strike packages.
Countering Drone Swarms
The integration of swarm technology is a natural response to advancements in counter-drone systems. Both Russia and Ukraine employ layered counter-drone defenses that include kinetic and non-kinetic measures. Non-kinetic systems use electronic warfare to exploit vulnerabilities in drone navigation and command signals. However, these systems typically are effective for a few weeks, at which time the targeted drones are updated to fix the exploited vulnerability. These systems are combined with kinetic counter-drone systems, which use projectiles to neutralize drones. These systems are being integrated into their short-range air defense networks, with smaller systems being pushed out to small units at the front.
Conventional Russian and Ukrainian counter-drone defenses will face challenges with swarms. Although non-kinetic systems have the potential to neutralize large groups of drones, as done by Russia early in the war, swarm technology complicates this approach by requiring the simultaneous jamming of numerous signals. Swarms typically operate in a nodal network, allowing a drone to receive critical information from other drones even if one communication pathway is jammed. The short distances between drones further strengthen their network signals, making them harder to disrupt. Kinetic systems also struggle, as they can only target a limited number of drones at a time. This forces the system to prioritize which drones to engage, while the rest of the swarm adjusts its flight patterns to evade being targeted.
Given these challenges, both sides will have to adopt alternative strategies to counter the swarm threat. Once deployed, a swarm of drones will be difficult to stop, so there will be increased efforts to disrupt drones prior to being launched. Such attacks are already occurring, with Russia claiming that their strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are intended to disrupt Ukraine’s drone development efforts. Meanwhile, Ukraine recently struck a storage facility containing 400 Shahed loitering munitions. Both sides will intensify these attacks on locations related to the drone storage and production, including strikes on facilities related to producing components used in drones.
Wars have historically driven technological advancements, as both sides strive for an edge on the battlefield. World War I advanced automotive technology, while World War II propelled modern aviation. Similarly, the Russia-Ukraine War has accelerated drone development over the past 34 months. Today’s drones are significantly more advanced than those at the war’s onset, and as the conflict continues, swarm technology is emerging as the next logical step. As 2025 progresses, the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield will see an increasing number of swarming drones. In response, both sides will need to develop innovative strategies to counter the escalating drone threat.
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