You don’t have to ask Russian commanders how they feel about the British and French cruise missiles the Ukrainian air force’s sole bomber regiment—the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade—has been firing at warehouses, repair depots and bridges in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
No, you only need to observe Russian actions in the weeks since Ukrainian and allied technicians first integrated the British Storm Shadow and similar French SCALP cruise missiles on the 7th Brigade’s aging Sukhoi Su-24M/MR supersonic bombers.
Russian forces have devoted a growing share of their own bomber and missile assets to striking at the 7th Brigade’s base in Starokostiantyniv in western Ukraine. So far without success. The brigade routinely gets advance notice of incoming Russian strikes … and scatters its planes and crews to outlying airstrips before the Russian munitions arrive.
Russian commanders undoubtedly are frustrated. And their attitudes are likely to get worse if German politics ultimately sort themselves out and Berlin finally, belatedly, pledges to Ukraine German-made Taurus cruise missile—a munition in the same class as the 1.5-ton Storm Shadow and SCALP, but much farther-flying.
Seventh Brigade Su-24s firing Storm Shadows and SCALPs have made life difficult for the Russians. The same bombers firing Tauruses would make life even more difficult—by deepening the expanse of occupied Ukraine that the twin-engine, two-person Sukhois can strike while also staying entirely out of range of all but the farthest-firing Russian air-defenses.
Arming the Su-24s with British and French cruise missiles radically has altered the fortunes of the 7th Brigade’s pilots and navigators. Now that its bombers don’t have to fly anywhere near a target in order to destroy it, the brigade’s loss rate has dropped from roughly a bomber a month practically to zero bombers: it’s written off just one this year.
The German Taurus missile, which can travel around 210 miles—nearly 50-percent farther than a Storm Shadow or SCALP can travel—would make the bombers even safer, by allowing them to stand off farther from Russian defenses. Perhaps, in certain scenarios, even beyond the reach of the 240-mile-range S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
Alternatively, the Ukrainian crews could accept the same SAM risk and fire their German missiles deeper into occupied Ukraine, even striking at targets in southern Crimea, where the Storm Shadows and SCALPs probably can’t reach. At least not at acceptable risk to the bomber crews launching them.
All three missiles—the British, French and German ones—are similar in size, payload and guidance. All three are subsonic. There are some minor differences in seekers and stealth qualities, but the big difference between the missiles is their respective engines. The Storm Shadow and SCALP have turbojets. The Taurus has a turbofan.
In a turbojet, air travels into the engine, combusts then travels out of the engine. In a turbofan—a more modern engine type—there’s a fan in the front of the engine that blows the air through the engine core, making it more efficient for a given weight and power.
It’s that extra efficiency that lends the Taurus greater range compared to the otherwise similar Storm Shadow and SCALP. Greater range that could represent another step change in the rapidly increasing firepower of the Ukrainian air force’s sole bomber brigade.
But that increase in capability hinges on politics, as most things in war usually do. Kyiv for months has been asking Berlin for Tauruses. But in interviews in June and July, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and minister of defense Boris Pistorius both said Germany would not supply Ukraine with long-range missiles. Scholz and Pistorious clearly view the missiles as escalatory.
But support for Ukrainian Tauruses is growing inside Scholz’s own Social Democratic Party. Andreas Schwarz, a member of parliament from the SPD, now is calling on Berlin to donate the cruise missiles to Ukraine.
The 7th Brigade’s bomber crews surely can’t wait. Russian commanders, on the other hand, might be feeling a growing sense of dread as the Ukrainans’ shared dream of Taurus-armed Su-24s becomes a reality.
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