Ukraine Committed One Of Its Reserve Brigades to The Counteroffensive

When Ukraine launched its long-anticipated southern counteroffensive along several axes in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts starting on June 4, it committed a few of its best-equipped brigades, but held more than half its forces in reserve.

It was all part of the plan. “A robust Ukrainian reserve force lies in wait to be committed at the optimal time and place of Ukrainian choosing,” U.S. Army general Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters.

The initial idea was for the lead brigades to probe for gaps in Russian defenses, and widen these gaps for follow-on brigades to exploit.

Now we’ve observed what seems to be a formerly in-reserve brigade in action, and suffering losses, in Zaporizhzhia. The previously uncommitted 22nd Mechanized Brigade apparently abandoned a pair of its T-72-style tanks—an ex-Polish PT-91 and an ex-Czech T-72EA—during an assault in the southern oblast on or around July 9.

That the 22nd Mechanized Brigade—the only Ukrainian brigade we’ve visually confirmed as operating PT-91s—seemingly has rolled into action doesn’t mean Ukrainian troops achieved a major breach of Russian defenses earlier this month. Indeed, there’s no evidence of such a breach.

It’s no secret that, after encountering mile after mile of dense Russian minefields, Ukrainian commanders ordered their brigades to slow down rather than attempt speedy—and risky—breakthroughs through mines.

The Ukrainian military “is doing what anyone else would do having to fight through minefields towards the Russian line,” U.K. defense minister Ben Wallace told The New York Times.

At the same time, commanders in Kyiv seemed to realize that their troops’ new Western-made artillery—and the American-made cluster shells these guns now fire—were outshooting Russian guns along the southern front. The Russians are losing four howitzers for every one howitzer the Ukrainians lose.

Traditionally, attacking armies suffer much heavier casualties than defending armies do, as the latter can dig while the former must advance across open terrain. But Ukraine’s fast-improving fire support makes it possible for attacking Ukrainian brigades to inflict equal damage on defending Russian brigades and regiments.

So when the 22nd Mechanized Brigade finally arrived in Zaporizhzhia, it didn’t necessarily roll straight through a wide gap in Russian lines.

Instead, the 22nd Brigade may have just joined the slow, artillery-first grind that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has become. The brigade’s apparent loss of tanks and other vehicles in Zaporizhzhia earlier this month is consistent with an attritional fight.

It’s possible one of the brigade’s battalions was trying to advance when some tanks struck mines. Crews bailed out as Russian artillery dialed in. The result is the first confirmed loss of a PT-91 tank in Ukrainian service. It almost certainly won’t be the last.