If Ukrainian commanders were hoping their invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast beginning three weeks ago would draw some of the best Russian regiments and brigades away from eastern Ukraine and relieve pressure on Ukrainian troops in the most vulnerable eastern sectors, they’re surely disappointed.
The Kremlin has left its eastern forces in place, for the most part—and reinforced Kursk with young and poorly trailed conscripts, instead.
And that means Russia’s eastern offensive, which kicked off last fall and widened around the New Year, has continued unimpeded through August. The consequences for Ukraine’s defensive campaign in the east have been dire.
In essence, Russia is trading Kursk for part of eastern Ukraine. Ukraine is trading part of the east for Kursk. Whether either tradeoff is worth it is a political question—and one without an easy answer for either side.
The drumbeat of recent Russian advances east of Pokrovsk, northwest of Donetsk, should sound like an alarm in Kyiv. On Friday, Russian infantry marched into Novohrodivka, seven miles east of Pokrovsk. Firing a rocket-propelled grenade, they knocked out a Ukrainian tank.
Pokrovsk sits astride the main Ukrainian supply lines west of Donetsk. After weeks of steady Russian gains, the city is in increasing danger.
Analysts anticipated this development. In late July, Frontelligence Insight—a Ukrainian analysis group—described the situation around Pokrovsk as “critical.” And that was before the Russians captured several more villages on the road to Pokrovsk including Orlivka and Mykolaivka.
Not even the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade with its two dozen or so surviving M-1 Abrams tanks has been able to halt the Russian advance.
If there’s a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered defenders of Pokrovsk, it’s that Russian losses in the sector have been “heavy,” according to the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team.
And there are signs the losses are weighing on the Russian advance. “On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is beginning to experience resource shortages,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted. “The number of advance directions has decreased from seven to three in the space of two weeks.”
But even a slower, narrower Russian advance is still an advance—and Pokrovsk is at ever greater risk of falling. If that results in a wider collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the east, commanders in Kyiv may regret deploying a large force—potentially a dozen front-line battalions, each with up to 400 troops—to Kursk instead of reinforcing Pokrovsk.
Sources:
1. Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=48.220131007369716%2C37.42063480315035&z=12
2. Frontelligence Insight: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/summer-2024-frontline-dynamics-overview
3. Conflict Intelligence Team: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-21-23-2024
4. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-250824
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