After scientists worldwide dispelled the false promises surrounding the purported superconductor LK-99, another scientific breakthrough in nuclear fusion naturally drew scrutiny. Nuclear fusion has been “10 years away” for decades – why should this be any different? This narrative and accompanying headlines mean fusion advances are sometimes lost in technobabble. The latest developments in nuclear fusion may not herald an age of limitless emission-free energy just yet. Still, they represent a concrete step forward for the greenest energy source known to humanity.
In December 2022, a breakthrough for nuclear fusion occurred when more energy was released than used in creating the reaction, finally passing the “break-even point.” This recent innovation was duplicated when the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California recently repeated its success. The response released a higher energy yield than ever before. However, these breakthroughs are limited: they were not energy positive for the entire system, only for the lasers used in the reaction. The power generated was less than what a refrigerator uses to run in one day and had to be created at the National Ignition Facility in an area the size of a football stadium. Nuclear fusion remains more than 10 years away. It is hard for mere humans to replicate a fusion reaction found only in stars.
A fusion reaction does not contradict the known fundamentals of physics. The problems scientists encounter are one of actualization, not conception. While technical challenges abound, they will be solved in time. The focus needs to shift to mitigating the sundry assortment of engineering issues government labs and private companies can solve in the near term to pave the way for economically effective and safe nuclear fusion.
Cost efficiency is the most serious challenge, as the prospect of its proliferation will depend on the cost of building reactors and the technology involved in producing nuclear fission. After years of planning, renewables are often the cheapest form of energy, ensuring that they will be adopted on a wide scale when the technology matures. All we need is economically practical energy storage and solutions to intermittency. Still, even such a proponent of green tech as John Kerry, the Biden Administration Special Envoy for climate change, says that the tech is not ready yet.
Supply and logistical issues also hamper nuclear fusion, with almost all the most critical components involved in fusion being in dangerously short supply. The entire worldwide supply of tritium, a hydrogen isotope vital for nuclear fusion, is less than 20 kilograms. This is only 1/3rd the material cost a hypothetical fusion reactor would use to output as much power as an average American power plant in one day. Even before nuclear fusion is powering homes, there is already a supply crisis. Research into artificially creating tritium is occurring but remains tentative, while others propose mining the moon to resolve the supply crunch.
Deuterium, another vital hydrogen isotope, doesn’t have the same supply crunch but instead has delivery and economic constraints from extracting it from seawater. Thankfully, this can be mitigated with dual-use investment into desalinization, and the market is already optimistic about deuterium demand climbing steadily. Chinese energy company Guangzhou Jietong Gas, alongside MATHESON and Praxair
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The environmental costs of nuclear fusion should also not be underestimated. While it is significantly cleaner than fossil fuels, nuclear fusion is not a panacea for pollution. Some erroneously confuse practical atomic fusion with the hypothetical concept of cold fusion, which would hypothetically occur at room temperatures and have no pollution.
Loose in the environment, tritium is dangerous for approximately 120 years. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that the United States does not currently operate a permanent disposal facility for high-level nuclear waste, significantly complicating nuclear projects. This situation reflects the US Department of Energy’s myopic policy for decades.
The localized nature of nuclear power waste disposal could be fatal for the green energy future of humanity if not preemptively and decisively addressed, be it the regular nuclear reactor spent fuel or fusion-related waste in the future.
Ironically, the hypothetical possibilities of nuclear fusion also present a problem. Nuclear fusion can theoretically emit so much energy so fast that scientists are still determining how small reactions can be scaled down. Without significant energy grid investment, it is possible that nuclear fusion would remain tragically out of reach because it could push too much energy too fast onto a grid that couldn’t distribute excess supply.
The vision of humanity enjoying free energy without climate damage isn’t imminent, but neither is it fantasy. Everything should be done to ensure that when the technology arrives, policy is ready. As one recalls the saying, “A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they will never sit,” one understands why we must prepare for fusion today.
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