Moana 2 dominated theatrical turnstiles all week, entering its second weekend atop nearly $455 million globally and approximately $120-130 million in ticket sales on the table, for what will inevitably be another record-breaking domestic weekend for the blockbuster Disney animated sequel.
Moana 2 And Wicked Both Top Frozen 2
Through Sunday, most estimates point to Moana 2 boosting its cume to at least $570 million at the worldwide box office. But it’s likely it will overperform, as it’s done almost every day since it debuted so far, and land somewhere in $575-580 million range, perhaps even higher.
But before I dive into those numbers, let’s look at Moana 2’s upcoming latest record on the box office charts. I have a feeling this won’t be the last record we see the sequel breaking over the Christmas movie season.
After a massive all-time opening over Thanksgiving, Moana 2’s second weekend gross of about $60 million will fly past Frozen 2’s pre-Covid era 2019 $35 million as the highest domestic grossing post-Thanksgiving-weekend and first weekend of December in cinema history, nearly doubling that previous record-holder’s sales.
Consider, too, that Wicked is likewise on track to top Frozen 2’s previous record for the early December weekend — I think we’ll see at least $40 million stateside from the broadway adaptation, giving it status as the second-biggest performance on the first weekend of December (behind Moana 2, of course).
That’s after Wicked delivered a then third-best freshman domestic weekend of 2024 last month, before Moana 2 set a new record and pushed all other titles down a spot on that list over Thanksgiving.
Moana 2 Second Weekend Numbers
Despite Wicked catching up to Moana 2 at the domestic box office to take the lead mid-week and continue in first place ahead of the weekend Universal’s spectacular and spectacularly successful adaption of the hit broadway musical will have to settle for a very respectable and lucrative silver metal for the weekend.
I think Wicked will end the weekend conjuring up a grand running total of at least $420 million, if not several million dollars higher, in global receipts. The foreign numbers for Moana 2, however, should be much higher at roughly the same range as North American sales. And the Disney film opens in Japan and Hong Kong this weekend, too, where it will likely put up solid numbers boosting the global sales further above expectations.
I’m going to go ahead and predict Moana 2’s weekend figures hit $60 million in North America, $65 million in existing international markets, and at least $10-15 million from the two new markets, for a bullish prediction of $590 million total.
Low end, I don’t expect anything less than $57 million domestic, $65 million total international, and at least a $575 million cume — so even my personal low-end prediction is bullish compared against overall expectations for Moana 2 this weekend.
And I cannot say enough, regardless of skepticism and my own growing sense of where the numbers are ultimately headed, Moana 2 has a lot of room to beat even my own high expectations. We all remember this past summer when every weekend forced us to revise our predictions and expectations for Inside Out 2 on its way. to$1.698 billion and the crown for highest-grossing animated movie in history.
Moana 2 May Fall Short Of Major Record
Although Moana 2 had a record opening, record post-Thanksgiving-weekend gross, another week and weekend ahead of mostly uncontested rule over multiplexes, and an expectation for a nice holiday bump into the New Year, there is still a caveat about its future box office prospects.
Unless we see an overperformance this weekend domestically and overseas to the tune of $600+ million through close of business Sunday, Moana 2 will probably not match or best Inside Out 2 for the title of 2024’s highest grossing film and crown for all-time biggest animated feature film.
I think the momentum from repeat business is slowing faster for Moana 2 than it did for Inside Out 2, particularly with adult audiences and particularly stateside. And there’s just a lot more competition coming into the marketplace.
New Line Cinema’s and Warner Bros. Discovery’s The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim and Sony’s Kraven the Hunter won’t prove major obstacles to Moana 2’s longterm fortunes, but they’ll still likely top the mid-December charts and eat into Moana 2‘s momentum.
Then, the arrival of Sony’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King on December 20th will definitely take much of the oxygen out of the room for the rest of the family entertainment over the weekend. While I still think Moana 2 and Wicked will see their own prospects improve with a “rising tides lifts all boats” effect for the most popular and leggy family movies through Christmas and the New Year, I’m doubtful they’ll remain in the weekly top-five by the end of the long five-day Christmas holiday weekend.
So unless the data through this weekend tops my already bullish expectations, and unless international viewership also defies the trends I discussed and sees a huge turnout in Japan and Hong Kong — all of which is well within the realm of possibility, to be sure — then I think Moana 2 will have to settle for a final cume just above or just below either Deadpool & Wolverine, Sonic the Hedgehog, and/or Mufasa: The Lion King, depending on where each of those films wind up on the year-end box office charts.
But don’t worry, nobody at Disney is shedding any tears if Moana 2 winds up “only” the second or third highest earner of the year. Notice, it’s mostly Disney film vs. Disney film in the top tier of 2024 box office — Inside Out 2 from Disney-Pixar, Deadpool & Wolverine from Disney-Marvel, Moana 2 from Disney Animation, Mufasa: The Lion King from Disney again. The only other film I see making 2024’s elite category of billion dollar earners is (probably) Sonic the Hedgehog 3.
And Moana 2 is currently still in the race for biggest blockbuster of the year and remains charted toward $1 billion in global ticket sales, regardless of where I think its headed based on current numbers and my guess at how audience viewership will play out in the coming weeks. Stay tuned, it’s going to be an interesting Christmas season.
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