While The Hollywood Reporter is declaring that Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon had a “solid” debut after its opening weekend this holiday, I’m not so sure.
Rebel Moon attracted 23.9 million views in its three day launch, which began December 21. A “solid kickoff” for a movie that doesn’t have huge stars and is an original IP, says THR. But you still have to view those numbers in context, and that’s when things don’t start to look so good, especially for a high profile action blockbuster that Netflix spent a ton of capital marketing, including a full homepage takeover of the entire service on login, something I’ve never seen before.
Of Netflix’s original movies of 2023, Rebel Moon is actually in ninth place, behind many lower profile offerings. And it’s done close to half of what the top four did after three days.
- Murder Mystery 2 – 42.9 million
- The Mother – 42.9 million
- Extraction 2 – 42.8 million
- Leave the World Behind – 41.7 million
- Heart of Stone – 33.1 million
- You People – 28.3 million
- The Killer – 27.9 million
- Your Place or Mine – 27.7 million
- Rebel Moon – 23.9 million
- The Pale Blue Eye – 19.8 million
- The Out-Laws – 19.6 million
- We Have a Ghost – 19.1 million
- Reptile – 17.7 million
- Chupa – 15.5 million
- Love at First Sight – 14.1 million
I genuinely had to look a few of these up to remember what they even were. The Mother was Jennifer Lopez as an assassin getting back in the field. Heart of Stone was a Gal Gadot spy movie. You People was a comedy led by Jonah Hill and Eddie Murphy. Your Place or Mine was an Ashton Kutcher Reese Witherspoon romcom. The Pale Blue Eye was a mystery thriller where Edgar Allen Poe solves crimes.
So no, it does not seem amazing that a Jonah Hill comedy got 5 million more views its opening weekend than Rebel Moon. It is true that Rebel Moon lacks the star power of most films here, as those at least have one star you’ve probably heard of, while it’s led by Sofia Boutella, Charlie Hunnam, Ed Skrein and Michael Huisman, names you probably only know if you’re really, really into movies and TV. It is true that Snyder himself is the draw, or if you just…thought the trailer and promos looked cool.
But after its debut, it’s become his lowest critically reviewed film ever, and also, over time, attracted one of his lowest audience scores as well. While many may not like the film at baseline, two huge specific points constantly brought up were the decision to split the movie in half, where the other part debuts in April, and to released a rather mangled PG-13 cut, eliminating sex and violence in a version that Snyder himself has indicated is very much inferior. Another issue is that after these initial views, Rebel Moon seems unlikely to garner the type of positive word of mouth to make it a longer term hit.
So no, I don’t think that for a movie with this high a budget and this much promotion you can spin that this is a “solid” debut. That said, Netflix is already locked into both the second part and that promised R-rated director’s cut. But this becoming a Star Wars-like original IP for them seems extremely unlikely past that.
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