Who Will Hit No. 1?

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Less than a month ago, Kanye West debuted his new album Vultures 1 at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. The set is slowly sliding down on the ranking of the most-consumed full-lengths and EPs in the U.S., but it’s still performing very well. In just a few days, the hip-hop musician is slated to drop another project, and if he does, he’ll have to compete for the top spot with another one of the biggest superstars on the planet.

Currently, both West–along with his collaborator Ty Dolla $ign–and Ariana Grande are scheduled to release albums this coming Friday (March 8). The hip-hop super duo is expected to drop the second installment in their three-part series, Vultures 2. Grande’s first album in several years, Eternal Sunshine, is supposed to drop on the same day.

West and Grande rank as some of the most popular musicians in the world right now. They both command massive fan bases, who will surely be eager to support their favorites. So who will win the race to capture another No. 1 album on the Billboard 200?

Looking at their last albums–both of which topped the Billboard 200 upon their arrivals–Grande may have an edge over West. Her most recent full-length, Positions, opened atop the ranking in 2020 with 174,000 equivalent units shifted. Vultures 1 debuted at No. 1 with 148,000 equivalent units just a month ago.

Grande’s absence may help–or possibly hinder her–when it comes to debuting a new album at No. 1. While West’s name has been in the media recently, thanks to the success of Vultures 1–among many other stories–Grande has been fairly quiet when it comes to music. For the past few years, she’s been busy filming the two Wicked movies, but whether that time away will encourage fans to step up their support or if it’s caused them to move on is not entirely clear. Grande is still beloved, but does she command the same commercial power she once did?

So far, no one has heard anything from Vultures 2. West and $ign are still riding high on Vultures 1, with lead track “Carnival” hitting a new high of No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week. No singles have been produced from the project, and there’s been no announcement that anything is on the way before the full-length drops in full.

Grande previewed Eternal Sunshine with a single titled “Yes, And?,” which arrived in January. The dance-pop tune was a smash right away, as it debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100. The song hasn’t become a sturdy hit, exactly, but its quick success suggests that people are very interested in what the singer has to say after so much time.

There’s also a real chance that West and $ign’s album will not be released on Friday. The two announced the street dates for all three Vultures projects some time ago, but West isn’t exactly known for keeping to schedules. Vultures 1 was delayed many times across several months before it finally dropped, so there’s no telling if the second title in the run will even drop when fans are expecting.

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