ICSC, the trade group representing malls, shopping centers, and other marketplaces, is predicting that holiday retail sales will be up 3.8% this year, and that food and beverage sales will grow by 7.6%.
Total spending for the season is expected to be $1.6 trillion.
The group also expects that a large share of that spending will occur in brick-and-mortar stores, and at shopping centers.
The holiday forecast, released today, is based on consumer surveys.
The forecast expects sales growth to be lower than the 2022 holiday season. Last year retail sales rose 5.3% in November and December, according to the National Retail Federation.
“This year’s forecast shows the industry is balancing itself out after rapid growth over the last few years, setting retailers up for another successful holiday season,” Tom McGee, president and CEO of ICSC, said, in a statement accompanying the report.
Key findings from the ICSC survey, which was conducted in late September, include:
- 87% of consumers said they will shop at physical stores during the holiday season. 75% expect to make online purchases and have them shipped to their homes.
- Spending is expected to be split evenly between online and in-person shopping, with 41% occurring at physical stores, 42% online, and 17% on items purchased online and picked up at a store.
- Discount stores are the most popular holiday shopping destination, with 63% of consumers planning to shop there, followed by department stores at 34% and electronics stores at 22%.
- 79% of consumers said they plan to shop earlier this year, with 25% saying they had already started their holiday shopping as of September.
The ICSC echoes other cautiously optimistic forecasts for the holiday season. Adobe
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Deloitte and PwC also have released upbeat outlooks for holiday spending.
Deloitte reported this week that its holiday survey found consumers are “back in the spirit of spending” with spending expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels.
PwC expects spending to be up 7%, with consumers spending an average of $1,530 on holiday purchases.
The National Retail Federation also released its holiday survey findings today, reporting that consumers plan to spend an average of $875 on holiday gifts and related purchases, $42 dollars more than last year’s expected spending.
This week the Commerce Department reported stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in September, further fueling retailers hopes for a happy holiday season. Retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month, more than twice the expected gain.
Stephanie Cegielski, vice president of research and public relations at ICSC, in response to questions about today’s release, said ICSC members are feeling positive heading into the holiday season.
“Physical retail has been doing quite well this year, and the core of the marketplace industry is healthy,” Cegielski said. “Several key industry indicators, including occupancy rates and announced store openings, remain quite strong,” she said, noting that announced store openings still outpace store closings.
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