In today’s column, I address a question that a reader sent me about the future of AI and the potential attainment of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). The question was whether the pursuit of AGI and ASI is motivated by a belief in manifest destiny. That’s a great question, thanks.
Let’s talk about it.
This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).
Manifest Destiny Defined
I’ll start by clarifying the notion of manifest destiny.
You likely know that the catchphrase of manifest destiny originated in the era when American settlers opted to expand across the country seeking to go westward. The phrase has become lore in our history. Some embrace the meaning while others find it outrightly distasteful and abundantly abysmal.
The two words nearly speak for themselves.
We describe something as being manifest when it is readily apparent or obvious. Destiny is said to be what will happen in the future and is considered a kind of ultimate and unavoidable fate. Combining the two leads to the assertion that our fate or destiny is sometimes obvious, and we ought not to question or seek to justify it. It is what it is.
The usual basis for manifest destiny in the case of American settlers was that the country had a divine moral virtue and that the American way of life warranted expansion. This was an important mission. It had to be carried out. No looking back.
Debates subsequently have at times repudiated this logic and contended that it was merely a slogan to justify a form of imperialism. The use of manifest destiny permitted justifying just about any kind of action, including adverse actions. All you had to do was hold high the coinage of manifest destiny and voila, you could do whatever you wanted to do.
The historical usage and the underlying concept are still hotly debated to this day. You likely have your own viewpoint on the merits or failings of manifest destiny.
The Pursuit Of AGI And ASI
Shift gears to focus on AI.
There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).
AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of AI, AGI, and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.
AI insiders are pretty much divided into two major camps right now about the impacts of reaching AGI or ASI. One camp consists of the AI doomers. They are predicting that AGI or ASI will seek to wipe out humanity. Some refer to this as “P(doom)” which means the probability of doom, or that AI zonks us entirely, also known as the existential risk of AI.
The other camp entails the so-called AI accelerationists.
They tend to contend that advanced AI such as AGI or ASI is going to solve humanity’s problems. Cure cancer, yes indeed. Overcome world hunger, absolutely. We will see immense economic gains, liberating people from the drudgery of daily toils. AI will work hand-in-hand with humans. This benevolent AI is not going to usurp humanity. AI of this kind will be the last invention humans have ever made, but that’s good, in the sense that AI will invent things we never could have envisioned.
No one can say for sure which camp is right, and which one is wrong. This is yet another polarizing aspect of our contemporary times.
For my in-depth analysis of the two camps, see the link here.
Manifest Destiny About AGI And ASI
Four crucial questions come to mind on this weighty topic:
- (a) AGI-specific. Are we driven to attain AGI because of manifest destiny?
- (b) ASI-specific. Are we driven to attain ASI because of manifest destiny?
- (c) AGI/ASI in total. Are we driven to attain AGI/ASI because of manifest destiny?
- (d) Advancing AI. Are we driven to advance AI overall, regardless of whether AGI or ASI is in the picture, and do so because of manifest destiny?
The third question lumps both of the first two questions into one question, namely whether manifest destiny is at the heart of attaining AGI and ASI. I will separate the AGI and ASI in a moment so that each gets their respective devoted attention. The fourth question puts aside the emphasis on attaining AGI/ASI and merely stipulates that we blankly want to advance AI, regardless of how far we get.
You could persuasively contend that we are advancing AI for the sake of advancing AI and that even if we don’t know for sure whether we’ll reach AGI or ASI, we are going to keep pushing ahead anyway. In that sense, the achievement of AGI or ASI is merely a happenstance along the way. It isn’t our focus. The focus entails advancing AI as far as it could ever be taken.
Why would we be doggedly determined on this?
One explanation would be that it is our manifest destiny. It is the destiny of humankind to build AI. It is the destiny of AI to keep advancing AI. This is so obvious that it doesn’t need to have any further explanation or justification.
If you want an explanation, which as I say is presumably not required under the auspices of manifest destiny, there are plenty of possible justifications. AI accelerationists would certainly tell you that by advancing AI we are likely to cure cancer and find solutions to societal problems. Nations would undoubtedly argue that advancing AI for their nation is needed to keep their country on par with the global community, perhaps even to stand out as a geo-economic and political superpower, see my coverage at the link here.
Another angle is that the maximum pursuit of AI is our cosmic duty. It is why we exist. Our existence has arisen so that we can make and field AI. That’s a shock for some who haven’t heard that line of argumentation previously.
Yes, some believe that we have been placed here to essentially attain AGI or ASI. If you’ve wondered why we exist, you now know – well, at least according to those who employ that line of thinking (for more on this startling concept, see my comments at the link here).
Deeper Dive Into Manifest Destiny And AI
A notable perspective about manifest destiny and AI is that the American settler era is especially apt to the situation we find ourselves in right now regarding AI. Thus, it isn’t just that we are recasting the application of manifest destiny. We are also revisiting history in the modern era.
The thinking goes like this.
Advancing AI and potentially achieving AGI or ASI is like expanding across the West to find a pot of gold on the other side. The brave settlers who gave their all would be akin to AI developers and researchers who are putting their minds avidly to advancing AI. There are risks at play, back then and now too.
These are six major points in that frame of reference:
- (1) Inevitability of AGI/ASI: Just as manifest destiny framed westward expansion, the same applies to AGI and ASI, including that such a pursuit is unstoppable. We are compelled to proceed ahead.
- (2) Ideological Justification for AGI/ASI: During the time of the westward expansion, a prevailing sentiment was that settlers were pursuing a civilizational duty. Present-day AI advocates similarly argue that pushing AI forward is humanity’s destiny.
- (3) Technological Drive: Railroads and industrialization enabled westward expansion, and ergo the discovery or invention of new computational and machine learning breakthroughs will drive AI forward likewise.
- (4) Immense Consequences: Manifest destiny led to major disruptions in people and ecosystems. Similarly, AGI/ASI is predicted to disrupt human labor, governance, and control structures (both good and bad).
- (5) Central Actors: Manifest destiny for westward expansion was instigated and instituted by selective governments, policies, and settlers. You can make a parallel to the pursuit of AGI/ASI, being driven by some governments, corporations, and universities, and either aided or abetted via prevailing laws or the lack of reining-in laws (see my legal AI analyses at the link here).
- (6) Allure Of The Frontier. Settlers were temptingly lured toward the mystery and unknown of the unexplored lands. Though AI isn’t about geography per se, you could claim an analogy to the mysteries of the mind and intelligence. The pursuit of AI is about the unraveling of the unknown secrets of thinking, a vast frontier that we have yet to conquer.
The Distinction Of AGI Versus ASI
Let’s take a moment to consider AGI and then a separate moment to consider ASI.
Keep in mind that AGI would be the type of AI that matches human intellect in capability, though not necessarily or particularly in form (i.e., use of computers rather than a human wetware brain). The point is that AGI is not superior, it is on par with human intellectual acumen. We are reserving or carving out the moniker of ASI for superintelligent AI.
You could make the case that the attainment of AGI might not be nearly as much of an existential risk as the attainment of ASI. With AGI, we are presumably coping with AI which is equal in intellect. Maybe AGI won’t be powerful enough to wipe us out or enslave us. The end risk then is rated as lower in comparison to ASI.
The gist is that if our manifest destiny is specifically AGI, we might be okay with this endpoint.
In contrast, if our manifest destiny is ASI, you must admittedly raise your eyebrows. ASI will be able to easily undertake intellectual circles around us. The chances of existential risk in the case of ASI go through the roof. The manifest destiny of ASI might be declared as inextricably and inexplicably leading us to our demise.
The trouble too is that even if the manifest destiny is AGI, we still aren’t out of the woods. Here’s why. We will indubitably be tempted to push AGI further and further along. The AGI itself might be doing this too. And what is the next point of AGI’s evolution? Seemingly ASI.
Our manifest destiny of AGI could merely be a stepping-stone to ASI, and again, wiping us from existence.
Manifest Destiny As Inapplicable
Now that we’ve explored the role of manifest destiny when it comes to advancing AI, the perhaps obvious question is whether manifest destiny truly applies to this circumstance.
Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t.
No one can say for sure.
A few considerations come to mind.
First, we don’t have any tangible proof that there is a manifest destiny involved in advancing AI. It is a conjecture. Some worry that as a conjecture, it inflames those who might madcap pursue advanced AI. This suggests that AGI or ASI will be attained but without suitable controls and means to keep ourselves alive.
Second, the clamor of manifest destiny might be used to fend off both AI ethics and AI regulatory endeavors. Any effort to put up any perceived barriers or bumps in the road would be readily countered by insisting that this is meddling in our manifest destiny of advancing AI. The rallying cry is a powerful one.
Third, critics of the AI and manifest destiny alignment argue that we are being gaslighted or tricked by such a postulated theory. It sounds like a perfectly apt idea. The retort is that the comparison is superficial. Worse still, the comparison is dangerous. Indeed, they would emphasize that we have come to see that the westward conquest was not as innocent or clean as the hallmark saying might suggest.
Where do you land on this provocative matter?
Please give the topic some sobering scrutiny.
A final thought for now to aid your thinking.
The famed American orator William Jennings Bryan said this: “Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.” I realize you might not agree with his sentiment, but if you do, the key perhaps is that our destiny is made by us and not preordained.
Meanwhile, you can be assured of one absolute, namely that the avid and rapid advancement of AI is going to continue for the time being, and either we will shape this or keep our fingers crossed that destiny knows what it is doing.
Choose whichever path of destiny you believe is applicable.
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