Nate Sanders is the CEO of Artifact, an AI company providing actionable, predictive insights into what customers say and do.
I have been enamored with aviation my entire life. As a child, my older brother took me flying in a small Cessna and I fell in love with it. As a part of that obsession, I started taking an interest in an odd set of materials: incident reports. I have been known, for fun, to spend my free time reading about the terrifying experiences pilots have faced. Humor aside, I believe these incidents can act as situational models that product managers should use.
One incident involving an Australian airline has stuck with me for several years:
In 2015, an Airbus A319 with 18 passengers and five crew members departed Perth bound for Melbourne. At 1:35 a.m., the pilot started to position the aircraft to make an approach to land on runway 16 at Melbourne International Airport. The pilot asked for clearance to descend to 3,000 feet.
Once air traffic control granted permission, the pilot decided to make a series of autopilot mode selections. In making some of these selections, the pilot made a mistake and selected a mode that led to the aircraft’s auto-thrust being disengaged. This moved the plane into a thrust lock, which caused the vertical rate of descent to go from 800 feet per minute to 1,600 feet per minute.
A chime advised the pilot of the thrust-lock setting, and the pilot took control of the sidestick. The autopilot was disengaged; the pitch of the aircraft, though, remained level. Regardless, the pilot pointed the plane toward the ground. Why would the pilot do that in response to an increase in thrust?
The pilot was experiencing an inner ear phenomenon that occurs with sudden acceleration and deceleration events. Inside our ears are tiny follicles of hair called otoliths. These hairs respond identically to speed and planar events. In other words, if the plane climbs, it can feel like it’s going faster. If it goes slower, it can feel like the plane is nose-diving. It’s a very, very convincing phenomenon.
Typically, minor pitch-down adjustments during the descent are manageable with corresponding pitch-up corrections. However, in this case, the pilot, already dealing with increased velocity, made pitch-down moves, plunging the aircraft into a perilous descent. The pilot and co-pilot found themselves trapped in a cycle of pitch-up illusions.
Thankfully, the timely intervention of air traffic control and the co-pilot’s assertive warnings averted disaster, enabling a safe landing.
With a wide spectrum of instruments, pilots can usually tell the aircraft’s state. However, as the workload intensifies, making timely, calculated decisions becomes more difficult. This inhibits their ability to spot illusions, which affects their ability to correct previous errors.
I’ve wondered, “What deceptive perceptions arise during product development that make us believe we’re on the right path, and how do we ensure we’re making the best possible decisions?” Like pilots navigating tricky situations, product managers often face illusions that can misguide decision-making.
The first illusion, feature-chasing, surfaces when product teams face less-than-desired adoption or engagement. The question then becomes, “Is it because we don’t have the right product, or is it because we don’t have enough product?” The latter is objectively, seldom, if ever, the real problem. Customers usually talk about what’s missing instead of what should be because it’s difficult for customers to explain what they want without first seeing it. So product managers find themselves in a loop of adding more, wrong features.
The second illusion is a dependence on linear processes. Teams implement processes hoping for predictably successful outcomes, such as “voice of customer” research; ideation; and prototype testing, release and measurement. These practices are valuable, yet, at times, teams may abdicate critical thinking to processes, placing the blame on adherence to process. It’s rare that this doesn’t result in more process.
The only way to avoid these illusions, especially when tensions are high, is to have mental models that allow you to see your initiatives clearly. Here are a few that I find effective:
Recognition Over Analysis
PMs can often recognize patterns or solutions from experiences rather than analyzing every detail. It is effective to pattern-match your intuition of what works in new scenarios. You shouldn’t feel like you have to start from zero every time you solve a new problem. As you learn what works, model what made it a success, and it becomes easier to approach future problems.
Satisficing Over Optimizing
In the real world, finding a “good enough” solution quickly might be more valuable than finding the perfect solution. When I started working, I thought being predictable was the best thing I could do. I now feel confident that making as many, high-quality decisions, as fast as I can is the most valuable output I can offer. You cannot control the localized outcomes of each decision. Use the information you have in front of you, find the signal and make the best decision you can.
Value Of Mental Simulation
Mental simulation’s value lies in enabling PMs to anticipate outcomes by playing out scenarios. Despite our innate aptitude for probabilistic thinking, we often overlook simulation because we’re stuck in the present. By envisioning the impact of added functionality, PMs could avoid potential problems and make improvements, fostering a better understanding of the core issues.
There are real illusions in creating new products. They can easily lead to a loop of adding more wrong features, more processes, failed products and incorrect attributions to failed initiatives. The challenge lies in spotting these deceptions early and readjusting them toward true market needs. You need methods and strategies for grounding yourself in what matters. By employing mental models and fostering a balanced approach toward analysis and action, product managers can steer their teams toward meaningful solutions. You’ll see better results, and you’ll have a lot fewer interesting incidents in your book of product failures.
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