U.S. Crude-Oil Stocks Likely Fell for First Time in Seven Weeks, Survey Shows

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(This article was originally published Tuesday.)


By Anthony Harrup


U.S. crude-oil inventories likely declined last week for the first time in seven weeks as U.S. refiners continued to ramp up capacity use following the fall maintenance season, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude stockpiles likely fell by 1 million barrels to 448.7 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 1, according to the average estimate of 10 analysts and traders. That would put stocks 8.4% above their level of a year earlier.

Expectations range from a draw of 3 million barrels to a build of 2 million barrels, with eight respondents expecting a reduction and two predicting an increase in inventories.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories are expected to rise by 700,000 barrels to 218.9 million barrels, according to the survey. Estimates ranged from an increase of 4.5 million barrels to a decrease of 3 million.

Stocks of distillates, mostly diesel fuel, are expected to rise by 1 million barrels to 111.8 million barrels, adding to the previous week’s hefty 5.2 million-barrel inventory build. Forecasts for distillates ranged from an increase of 3.5 million to a decrease of 3 million barrels.

Refinery capacity use likely rose by 0.8 percentage point to 90.6% in a fourth straight weekly increase. Forecasts range from a half percentage-point increase to one of 1.5 percentage points. Two analysts didn’t make a forecast.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use

Again Capital -1.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 Commodity Research Group -3.0 1.8 0.3 0.7 Confluence Investment Management 2.0 4.5 3.5 1.5 DTN -1.2 1.5 -0.5 0.7 Excel Futures 1.7 1.3 3.5 0.6 Spartan Capital Securities -1.6 -2.2 1.2 n/f Mizuho -0.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 Price Futures Group -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 1.0 Ritterbusch and Associates -2.6 1.8 2.3 0.6 Tradition Energy -0.7 -2.1 -0.5 n/f AVERAGE -1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged


Write to Anthony Harrup at [email protected]


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