Consumer confidence leaps to 17-month high on waning inflation and fewer recession worries

Consumer confidence tends to signal whether the economy is getting better or worse. The index is still well below the levels associated with a healthy economy, however.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to register 104.

Key details: A measure that looks at how consumers feel about the economy right now rose to 155.3 in June from 148.9. That’s the highest level in almost two years.

A confidence gauge that looks ahead six months moved up to 79.3 in June from 71.5, the highest reading this year.

The future-expectations index was still below the 80 mark that often signal a recession ahead, however. the board has said. The index has been below that level in every month except for one in the last 16 months.

Americans think inflation will continue to slow. They see prices rising 6% in the next year, the smallest reading since the end of 2020.

Big picture: Consumers have been telling pollsters for the past year that they are unhappy about the economy. Yet they are still spending like the economy is in good shape.

What explains the divide?

Inflation is running high and Americans are paying more for everything. Yet wages are also rising, unemployment is low and people are secure in their jobs. That’s given them the confidence to spend — and to keep the economy out of recession.

Looking ahead: “The expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next six to 12 months,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, but “considerably fewer consumers now expect a recession in the next 12 months compared to May.”

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.41%
and the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.42%
rose slightly in Tuesday trades.