Lattice Stock: Buy For The Long-Term Despite Short-Term Headwinds (NASDAQ:LSCC)

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In our previous assessment of Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:LSCC), we delved into the remarkable upsurge of the company’s growth in 2022, which surged at an impressive 28.1%, fuelled by robust performances in the Communications & Computing (26.1%) and Industrial & Automotive (41.2%) segments, where Lattice expanded its

Comparison of Low to Mid-Range FPGAs

Lattice

AMD

Microchip

Intel

Number of Low-Range FPGAs (<100K Logic)

3,454

2,790

1,150

2,981

Number of Mid-Range FPGAs (100K – 500K Logic)

199

854

301

3,573

Total Low to Mid-range FPGAs

3,653

3,644

1,451

6,554

Comparison of Mid-Range FPGA

Avant-G (Lattice)

Avant-X (Lattice)

Spartan UltraScale+ (AMD)

PolarFire (Microchip)

Agilex 5 D-series (Intel)

Agilex 5 E-series (Intel)

Memory Rates (RAM)

2.4 Gbps

2.1-2.4 Gbps

2.4-4.3 Gbps

1.6 Gbps

3.2-4.3Gbps

2.4-3.7Gbps

Memory Type (RAM)

LPDDR4/DDR4

DDR5/LPDDR 4/DDR4

LPDDR5/DDR4/LPDDR4

DDR4/DDR3/LPDDR3

DDR5/ LPDDR5/DDR4/LPDDR4

DDR5/ LPDDR5/DDR4/LPDDR4

Transceivers Data Rates

10Gbps

25Gbps

16.3 Gbps

12.7 Gbps

28 Gbps

28Gbps

Process

16nm

16nm

16nm

28nm

10nm

10nm

Comparison of Mid-Range FPGA

Avant-G (Lattice)

Avant-X (Lattice)

Spartan UltraScale+ (AMD)

PolarFire (Microchip)

Agilex 5 D-series (Intel)

Agilex 5 E-series (Intel)

Memory Rates (RAM)

5

4

2

6

1

3

Memory Type (RAM)

5

3

4

6

1

1

Transceivers Data Rates

6

3

4

5

1

1

Process

3

3

3

6

1

1

Average

4.75

3.25

3.25

5.75

1

1.5

End Market

Forecast CAGR

Data Center

39%

AI-enabled PC

50%

ADAS

18.7%

Average

35.9%

Segment Revenue ($’000s)

Our Previous Forecast (2023)

Actual Revenue (2023)

Difference

Communication and Computing

326,092

257,536

-68,556

Growth % (YoY)

18.7%

-6.3%

-25.0%

Industrial and Automotive

397,793

433,482

35,689

Growth % (YoY)

24.5%

35.7%

11.2%

Consumer

49,064

46,136

-2,928

Growth % (YoY)

0.0%

-6.0%

-6.0%

Licensing and Services

15,730

-15,730

Growth % (YoY)

-8.2%

8.2%

Total Revenue

788,678

737,154

-51,524

Growth % (YoY)

19.4%

11.6%

-7.8%

End Market Growth

Market CAGR

Lattice’s 5Y Average

Computing and Communication

14.6%

16.6%

Industrial and Automotive

12.96%

23.7%

Consumer

6.60%

-9.3% (4Y average)

Lattice Revenue Forecasts ($’000s)

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

Communications and Computing

257,536

236,241

264,274

305,582

Growth % (YoY)

-6.3%

-8.3%

16.6%

15.6%

Industrial and Automotive

433,482

392,581

472,879

580,030

Growth % (YoY)

35.7%

-9.4%

23.7%

22.7%

Consumer

46,136

47,771

41,740

37,854

Growth % (YoY)

-6.0%

3.5%

-9.3%

-9.3%

Total Revenue

737,154

676,592

778,893

923,466

Growth % (YoY)

11.6%

-8.2%

18.9%

18.6%

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