Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

US presidential election primary season reaches a peak this week, as delegates in 15 states vote for Republican and Democrat candidates on Super Tuesday. Will this be the moment when Nikki Haley stands down? You can get the latest polling data and news by subscribing to the excellent new US Election Countdown newsletter, delivered to your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday by clicking here. If you want more beamed to your digital device, sign up to the US election channel on WhatsApp.

Another key question for Tuesday’s polling day is how much the unrest in the Hamas-Israel conflict — which passes its 150th day of fighting this week — will affect the Democrat vote for President Joe Biden. As my colleagues on the ground, Lauren Fedor and James Politi, note, the backlash over Gaza has also thrust foreign policy into the heart of the race for the White House. Hopes last week of a ceasefire deal ahead of the start of Ramadan this coming Sunday — or for that matter Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday — have fizzled. Can Biden resurrect talks to end the fighting?

Wednesday is the Spring Budget, a prominent entry in the UK news diary and a classic piece of British political theatre for the rest of us. Star of the show will be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who delivers his speech to parliament, outlining future tax and spending plans, at 12:30pm London time. The pressure is on for Hunt because it is likely to be the last big set-piece fiscal event for the Conservative government ahead of the general election. Expect tax giveaways. Click here for comprehensive FT updates on the day.

Talking of big political set pieces, they don’t come much bigger (in attendance numbers at least) than China’s National People’s Congress, which holds its annual session starting on Tuesday. Thousands of delegates will be descending on Beijing to be told, among other things, the country’s new growth projections for the year ahead. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to introduce stronger measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy to previous levels of expansion, especially after lacklustre figures for factory output released last week.

Talking of economics, we have a lot of central bankers giving speeches this week, continuing 2024’s ongoing debate on when interest rates can fall. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will on Thursday update Congress on monetary policy, while across the Atlantic European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will reveal the latest interest rate decision.

After a quiet start to the week for earnings, the results calls will pick up during the coming few days with insurance a strong theme in the UK as Aviva, Legal & General, Hiscox and Royal London report figures.

The week ends with voting again, this time for Portugal’s parliamentary election, which has been made a whole lot more interesting by the entrance of a far-right former football pundit.

One more thing . . . 

Or should I say, and the winner is . . . Prepare yourself for Oscars night next Sunday. This is not the only awards show in the diary, however. The Moules household will instead be following the other gala ceremony marked by ego clashes, tearful failures and big audience figures: yes, I’m talking about the Crufts dog show, which opens in Birmingham on Thursday.

A playful chocolate Labrador puppy arrived as the first Moules family pet a few weeks ago and I am therefore now in awe of anyone who can train any canine to the standard of Best in Show.

Your dog-rearing tips, as well as comments about your priorities for the next seven days, will be gratefully received. Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from you inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Samir Shah begins a four-year tenure as the chair of the BBC, taking over from acting chair Dame Elan Closs Stephens who stepped in following Richard Sharp’s resignation in April 2023

• Results: Clarksons FY, GlobalData FY

Tuesday

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at FIN/SUM event in Tokyo

• US Federal Reserve board vice-chair Michael Barr speaks at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Portland, Oregon

• British technology company Nothing launches its Phone (2a) smartphone in London

• China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB February services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• South Korea: preliminary Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

• UK: HM Treasury publishes data on official holdings of international reserves. Also, BRC-KPMG February Retail Sales Monitor.

• US: February factory orders data

• Results: Ashtead Q3, Bakkavor FY, Bayer FY, Brembo FY, Foxtons FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Hiscox FY, Inchcape FY, IWG FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller FY, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4, SIG FY, STV Group FY, Target Corp Q4, Thales FY, TKH Group FY, Travis Perkins FY

Wednesday

• Australia: Q4 GDP figures

• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

• Germany: February trade balance figures

• South Korea: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data (AM local time)

• UK: S&P Global February construction PMI data

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

• Results: AIB Group FY, Breedon FY, Brown-Forman Q3, Campbell Soup Company Q2, Capita FY, CLS Holdings FY, ConvaTec FY, DS Smith Q3 trading update, Galliford Try HY, Ibstock FY, Legal & General FY, Netcall HY, Nichols FY, Quilter FY, Rathbones FY, Ricardo HY, Spirent Communications FY, Tullow Oil FY

Thursday

• European Commission deadline date for Big Tech companies designated as gatekeepers — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft — to ensure full compliance with the Digital Markets Act obligations for each of their designated core platform services

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

• UK: February Halifax House Price Index

• US: Federal Reserve Board chair Jay Powell presents the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing in Washington

• Results: Admiral Group FY, Aviva FY, Beazley FY, Broadcom Q1, Brooks Macdonald HY, Costco Wholesale Q2, Darktrace FY, Elementis FY, Entain FY, Funding Circle FY, Grafton FY, ITV FY, Kier HY, Kroger Q4, Lufthansa FY, Melrose Industries FY, PageGroup FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Robert Walters FY, TT Electronics FY, Vivendi FY

Friday

• Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler speaks at the Investment Adviser Compliance Conference in Washington

• Canada: February unemployment rate

• EU: revised Q4 GDP figures and Q4 eurozone employment data

• Germany: February industrial production data

• Japan: trade balance data (AM local time)

• US: February employment report

• Results: Informa FY, Royal London FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• 150th day of Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza

• Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special summit in Melbourne with leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to commemorate 50 years of dialogue between Australia and Asean

• UK: 200th anniversary of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution

• US: North Dakota Republican party presidential caucus

Tuesday

• China: National People’s Congress annual session for the country’s top legislature opens in Beijing

• Czech Republic: French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Prague

• Russia: 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls

• US: Super Tuesday for the presidential primary elections, with voting taking place in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and the Alaska Republican party.

Wednesday

• Belize: municipal elections

• EU: the European People’s party, the centre-right grouping ahead in polls for June’s EU elections, begins its congress in Bucharest, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen due to be named as its candidate

• UK: Spring Budget speech by chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Linked to this, the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its economic forecast. Click here for full coverage from the FT

• US: Ryan Salame, a former senior lieutenant to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, is due to be sentenced after pleading guilty to two conspiracy counts last September

Thursday

• UK: Crufts, featuring 24,000 dogs competing for the title of Best in Show, begins in Birmingham. The overall winner will be announced on Sunday

• US: President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington

Friday

• International Women’s Day

• Ghana: 13th African Games begin across three cities, Accra, Kumasi and Cape Coast

• Ireland: referendums on changing the country’s constitution on family and care.

• US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown

Saturday

Sunday

• Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins

• Deadline, given by Israel, for Hamas to free all hostages in Gaza

• Portugal: general election

• UK: Mothering Sunday

• US: 96th Academy Awards (the Oscars) ceremony in Hollywood. Also, Daylight Saving time begins, with clocks going forward one hour.